Chapter 2 - Futures studies and the food question in Latin America: a literature review
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Introduction
1As the precedents on the public policy cycle indicate, prior to the design and formulation of policies, there is an instance of policy analysis, sometimes presented as an instance of deliberation, of openness to think about alternatives. It is in this space of deliberation or discussion that studies that contemplate prospective approaches often come into play. Foresight or futures studies, as disciplines that seek to propose, analyze and evaluate probable, possible and desirable futures (Bell, 2003), are inserted into this hypothetical instance of the policy cycle, after the initial stage of problem definition, to contribute to defining the type of solution for the public issue in question (Subirats, 1989; Orlansky, 2007). A range of different technical organizations, research institutes, laboratories, research centers, international cooperation agencies and multilateral organizations contribute studies and analyses to direct and guide public policy with regard to the challenges and opportunities of the future.
2Within this instance of policy analysis, futures studies are characterized by proposing a medium- or long-term view of the probable, possible or desirable futures corresponding to the issues in question. This long-term view seeks to anticipate certain processes, to facilitate the incorporation of different dimensions (with their different temporal rationales) as part of an interdisciplinary analysis, and to generate potential transformations that will make it possible to change the situation.
3The field of futures studies includes a variety of different schools of thought, with certain differences in terms of methodological practices and epistemological conceptions of the future.22 Some of these schools of thought are more closely linked to traditional scientific foresight (relying heavily on projections or models or on the analysis of the interaction between variables), while others emphasize the indeterminate condition of the future and the capacity of agency to forge desirable futures. In this paper we refer to foresight – or futures – studies as a broad spectrum of inquiries that seek to foresee, design, imagine or construct futures.
4Different methods are used to address probable, possible and desirable futures. More traditional methods from the field of scientific forecasting (simulation, econometric, projections, evolutionary and dynamic models) can be used that make it possible to determine the occurrence probability of a given phenomenon, or methods generated in the field of futures studies, which integrate qualitative and quasi-structured aspects of reality, such as the Delphi method (Aichholzer, 2009), the scenario method (Börjeson et al., 2006), the normative scenario or backcasting (Robinson, 2003), and causal layered analysis (Inayatullah, 1998), among others.
5This chapter sets out to analyze the way in which futures studies have addressed the food issue in Latin America. Given that futures studies are carried out to a large extent (not exclusively) to influence the positions of the state and the design of policies, it is interesting and pertinent to examine how these studies have addressed food systems, food or food security (from the different categories in which the food issue has been problematized).
6Given that Latin America is a major food-producing region, a preliminary question to be answered is the extent to which foresight studies linked to the food production sector have considered food as a problem to be investigated in prospective terms. Thus, the principal questions that form the basis of the inquiry include: To what extent do the futures studies that have been developed incorporate the problem of food into futures analysis, and if they do, how do they approach it? Which approaches and categories problematize the food issue? Which approaches have prevailed at different moments in time? Which products are generated through these studies and which audiences are targeted for the use or discussion of these results?
7A range of different approaches to the food issue were identified in the futures studies: a structuralist approach; a food security approach (in terms of access and availability); an approach that emphasizes food sovereignty; another that assumes that it is fundamentally markets, and especially incorporation into global markets, that can provide answers to food issues; another that highlights the “technical” attributes of food; one that prioritizes the environmental dimension and its relationship with food security; and, finally, an integral approach to sustainable food systems (the definition of each of these approaches can be found in the Appendix 2.1).23 These different approaches, which are found more or less explicitly in the studies analyzed, emerge from the analysis of the argumentative content of the documents in their various parts: justification, diagnosis, analysis of variables, scenarios formulated or policy recommendations.24
8As a complementary objective, this chapter also analyzes how the field of futures studies has evolved, specifically in the agricultural sector and in rural and territorial development. It is also interesting to discuss how this discipline and practice of imagining possible futures to assist policy formulation was introduced into technical and academic circles. In this sense, this study aims to provide a literature review on the use of foresight in the strategic planning of companies, production chains, agricultural science and technology and rural and territorial development organizations and other government agencies.
9The research is based on a survey of futures studies developed in Latin America from the 1970s to 2020. This survey includes 107 studies that address sectoral agricultural, food and rural, regional or territorial development issues. The survey included studies carried out in the region on a global scale, on a Latin American scale (approaches for all countries or for certain geographical areas, such as South America or the Southern Cone), and studies carried out in eleven countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela and Uruguay (either on a national or subnational scale).
10The criterion for considering the works included in the analysis was that they constituted a systematic foresight study on a specific problem, using a future perspective – whether or not a precise time horizon was specified – based on research activities and information analysis that applied certain methods linked to the prospective discipline and that the focus of the study, or at least a significant proportion of its analysis, was concerned with the agricultural sector, the agrifood system or the rural environment.25
11As we are working on more than 100 studies, this chapter does not attempt to analyze each of the studies individually. Conversely, a global view of the survey enables us to determine how foresight studies have addressed food issues over time, by which agencies or organizations they have been conducted, with what scale of analysis, which approaches to futures studies have prevailed at different times, and what type of publications have been produced.
12The chapter then goes on to highlight general aspects about the development of futures studies, and particularly agrifood futures studies, within the region, based on survey data from the 1970s and 1980s. The subsequent sections analyze the development of studies over the following three decades: the 1990s, the 2000s and 2010–2020. At the end of the chapter, a series of appendices follow the conclusions providing information on the analytical categories used to examine the approaches applied in addressing the food issue (Appendix 2.1), a brief description of the foresight methods mentioned in the chapter (Appendix 2.2) and the complete list of the futures studies surveyed and analyzed (Annex).
The origins of futures studies in Latin America and the food issue within the structuralist approach framework
13The futures studies discipline emerged in the context of the second post-war period in the middle of the last century. From different fields of experience, approaches and methods were being forged to deal with the uncertainty of the future and to assist in future-oriented decision making. The first known developments were made from two different but connected fields: the French academic field and North American geopolitics (Durance, 2010). From these spaces, an epistemology for analytical work on the foresight and innovative methods, such as the Delphi and scenario method, began to be developed that provided a new way of producing knowledge, incorporating the future time horizon and motivating interaction and interdisciplinarity. Soon, futures studies also began to be developed in large companies, in the field of business management, through what was called scenario planning. Other conceptual frameworks were also incorporated into the new field of future studies: from sociology, humanities and post-structuralism (Masini, 1993; Inayatullah, 1998), systems theory (Gallopín et al., 1997), epistemology and critical realism (Bell, 2003), and post-normal science (Funtowicz & Ravetz, 1993), among other contributions. Towards the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s, foresight was consolidated as an area of study (futures studies at international level) with insertion and development at academic level as part of postgraduate programs, research and development centers and various government agencies.
14The development of futures studies in Latin America suffered the difficulties of institutional instability, dictatorships and the exile of scientists and intellectuals in the initial stage of its development. The future-focused studies that began to be conducted were linked to the study of the economic and political viability of economic development, both at regional (Yero, 1993) and world levels (Herrera et al., 1977). The methodology of mathematical models and numerical experimentation methods had a strong influence in this early stage (Varsavsky & Calcagno, 1971). This primacy of mathematical methods, according to some authors, was a weakness for the exploration of alternative paths (Yero, 1993; Masini, 2005). The French school also had an influence in the Region, becoming an increasing presence over time, first through the influence of the Futuribles organization26 and then through the set of methods and freely available associated software developed by Michel Godet.
15The data from the survey conducted shows the pace of development of futures studies in the region. As can be seen in figure 2.1, the evolution in the number of studies carried out has grown slowly since the 1970s and only in the last decade does there appear to be a trend towards the consolidation of this type of studies in the Region, with greater dissemination, with 62 studies identified between 2010 and 2020.
Figure 2.1. Number of studies surveyed per period.
16During the 1970s and 1980s, with the incipient development of futures studies in the Region, eight studies were identified that in some way incorporate the long-term view in addressing development, agricultural sectoral and food issues. Only one of those eight studies fails to address the food issue, and another does so from a “market food” perspective. The rest of the studies are based on what we understand as a structuralist approach, although with nuances in the prioritization of certain variables, or in the explanatory models, but with common features that define them within this approach, which constituted an entire epochal climate in the region.
17From the structuralist approach, the issue of food, poverty and quality of life deficits in Latin American countries are related to the structural problems of development, to the subordinate situation with regard to international trade in relation to the Central countries, to the structural heterogeneity between economic sectors within the economies themselves (Cimoli & Porcile, 2013), and even within the agricultural sector itself. The lack of access to land and to production technologies, the agrarian social structure and its forms of large estate and peasant farming, are considered among the fundamental causes of the lack of productive development and also of access to adequate food for the population (FAO & ECLAC, 1974).
18Another noteworthy feature of the studies of this period is that, although few in number, most have been conducted at regional level. Of the eight studies conducted, five relate to Latin America, and, as a rule, have been financed and published by ECLAC or another UN agency. Two other studies refer to specific production chains: the pork chain in Venezuela and the citrus chain in Tucumán, Argentina. One other worldwide study is the high-profile Latin American World Model, coordinated by Amilcar Herrera (1977).
19The regional and global studies are those that specifically focus on the food issue, in addition to dealing with production, energy and urbanization issues. Since few studies were collated for this period, it is worthwhile highlighting the regional and global studies that included observations about food and nutrition.
20The study on the world model, coordinated by Herrera et al. (1977) was carried out by an interdisciplinary team at the Bariloche Foundation in Argentina. It was a very ambitious work that proposed an alternative hypothesis on the limits to world economic growth in response to the “The Limits to Growth” report presented years earlier by the Club of Rome (Meadows et al., 1972). It is the only world model carried out in the Region and had to be published at the time by a Canadian organization following the repression exercised by the military dictatorship on the institution and teams responsible.
21The Latin American World Model proposed a normative approach to the material feasibility of a desirable future, concluding that the main economic and social problem of the future did not lie in the material lack of natural resources or in the overpopulation of developing countries, but in the consumerist style of the northern countries. It proposed a series of concepts that nurtured the discussions and agendas on development in the following decades, such as the concept of “basic needs,” including food, together with other dimensions, such as demographics and health, housing and urbanization, education, renewable resources and other environmental aspects. This study criticized the distribution of world power as a conditioning factor of development, stating, in relation to food:
The true causes of hunger have their roots in sociopolitical factors, at both the international and national levels. Especially important in underdeveloped countries are local factors of social and political organization that hinder the equitable distribution and production of food. (Herrera et al., 1977, p. 65).
22The model also considered the levels of nutrition that could be achieved in the future, although in a very simplified way, considering the quantity of calories consumed.
23The work of ECLAC and FAO (1974) represented a long-term projection, using simulation models, with a time horizon of 15 and 30 years (up to 2000). It is justified by reference to a possible growing demand for food at international level and in the context of food deficits in the Region. The study states that, in the future, the Region will have to respond not only to its unsatisfied food and nutrition needs, but also to growing international demand, and therefore aims to boost agriculture, the growth and specialization of production, the development of agro-industry, improved productivity, and encourages international cooperation to improve in all these areas.
24Another regional study worth mentioning is that compiled by Martner (1986). This work, motivated by the approaching year 2000 milestone, and carried out by renowned Latin American social scientists and economists, set out to generate a regional discussion on the future of Latin America. Although in general terms signs of the structuralist approach can be identified in this work in the section that comprehensively explores the rural and agrarian issue in the region, the study compiled by Martner incorporates the report by Jacques Chonchol (protagonist of the agrarian reforms in Chile), which questions the future of capitalist modernization in agriculture and reveals the persistence of rural poverty. Chonchol proposed an ambitious set of measures for this work to modify the “bifurcation” between the economic and social objectives of Latin American economies, which included, for example, an agrarian reform program and goals such as food and energy self-sufficiency, a restructuring of social and cultural services, as well as modernization and the development of technological complexes. In this agrarian section, Martner’s work examines the integral approach of sustainable food systems. Although it fails to include the environmental dimension present in the current approach to sustainable food systems, aspects such as renewable energies were considered in this study, as shown in the following excerpt:
Faced with the problem of types of food, agrifood multinationals in Latin America have favored the development of a very expensive type of food in terms of the use of fossil fuels, which is only within the reach of the urban middle and wealthy classes. This is not conducive to the possibility of improving the food situation of the lower income sectors. In the future, it will be necessary to favor a new food model better adapted to the more efficient use of the natural resources of each country and the least costly possible in terms of the use of fossil fuels. (Martner, 1986, pp. 117-118).
25In methodological terms, the study draws on a structured analysis of future possibilities. The scenario method had not yet been incorporated into Latin American studies when it was being written. As a policy (or rather strategy) recommendation, it emphasizes the need for integration among the economies of the region to overcome the difficulties of economic and social crises.
26As mentioned above, during this initial period, Latin America was not the most favorable environment for the development of futures studies and their interaction with institutional and innovation systems, as the contexts of dictatorships, censorship and exile of scientists and professionals working in these disciplines made this type of innovation and any debate on possible and desirable futures a difficult task. It is possible that, because of these difficulties in the national spheres, futures studies were largely developed with the support of United Nations organizations, but that is also because regional integration operated as a possible horizon for overcoming the problems of development in Latin America. This wave of production focused on the regional scale was halted.
27In methodological terms, projection and modeling studies prevailed. The scenario method had not yet been introduced in the Region, nor had other futures methods been formalized. The scenario method, for example, was just starting to be formalized in the field of strategic business planning and some other international organizations. Although some studies introduced the term scenarios, they did so by analyzing the most probable trends, without yet incorporating an express formalization of the method or the epistemology that this method contemplates today. In addition, the publications and projects were mainly developed through international organizations, with some participation from scientific and governmental organizations.
Agrifood futures studies in the context of the transformations of the 1990s
28During the 1990s, the development of the futures studies discipline and its insertion into innovation systems in the Region was still incipient, but a number of academic publications appeared, as well as mass publications produced by major publishing houses aimed at a wide audience (Siglo XXI and Trilce). This is interesting because it means that the goal was to raise awareness of the issue of the future of agriculture and food among a broader public, rather than solely targeting experts or decision-makers.
29Eleven studies were identified for this period, in which a more focused interest in the agricultural sector (rather than in the broader terms of development studies) was observed, reprioritizing the sector within development strategies. There was a push for developments in biotechnology and the green revolution. Futures studies reflected the concerns defined by the new currents of globalization.
30In terms of the scales of analysis, of the eleven studies identified, five were conducted at regional level and were promoted by IICA, ECLAC and FAO; and six were developed at a national or organizational or chain (subnational) scale. The countries that developed studies at a national or chain scale were Brazil (4), Chile (1) and Mexico (1).
31As for specific topics, the foresight exercises were framed within the structural changes generated by the abandonment of import substitution industrialization and, in this context, agricultural activity was reprioritized and regained prominence in national economic strategies. The studies as a whole show a shift in concerns about the food issue. Sectoral approaches to the problems and prospects of agriculture prevail, focusing more on production, markets and new technologies and on the “technical” characteristics of food than on consumption, food or nutrition. Of the eleven studies, only three comprehensively address or link the food issue with the production issue. An incipient incorporation of environmental issues is also observed.
32The studies that did not focus on the food issue concentrated on technological innovation, international competitiveness, environmental sustainability and the modernization of the institutional framework for agriculture for the new millennium. Figure 2.2 lists the number of studies according to their focus on addressing the food issue.
Figure 2.2. Approach to the food issue in the 1990s.
33The agricultural developments that emerged during this decade were identified as part of the techno-economic revolution based on knowledge-intensive technologies. The new technological trends of the period heralded transformations in production processes and, therefore, also in the social structure of rural scenarios. Rodolfo Quintero’s (1993) foresight study on agrobiotechnologies, for example, pioneered the identification of agricultural biotechnology as a development in which the region, as a global geoeconomic space for food production, should develop institutional, scientific and technological capabilities. In this sense, Quintero’s prospective exercise illustrates the strategic and normative nature of the policy recommendations that filtered into the future studies of this period. The “market food” approach is clear in this report, as it does not address concerns related to the food issue but is only concerned with the contribution of biotechnology to sectoral developments in the Region’s agriculture.
34Futures studies also focused on the development of certain production chains in view of the concern about the international integration of agricultural products due to the new quality and health parameters demanded by the markets of developed countries. This was the focus of a study conducted by the National Grape and Wine Research Center of the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA) in conjunction with the Future Studies Program of the Management Institute Foundation of the University of São Paulo (Wright et al., 1992). This study sought to guide the planning and development of the activities of the agents in the wine sector, identifying future scenarios and indicating paths and proposals for action in the international context, including MERCOSUR. Similarly, albeit using a different methodology, the foresight analysis of Chilean agro-exports carried out by ECLAC (Palma, 1990) identified the potential power of global certification bodies within the framework of the new dynamics of the international market.
35One of the studies to have looked at the problems surrounding the food issue in-depth is that by Torres Torres (1990) that, although failing to define a specific prospective method, conducts a macro-historical analysis from a Latin American structuralist approach to analyze the technological revolutions that have been historically developed in agriculture, and particularly the green revolution in the Region that began to have an impact in the 1970s, followed by the era of the biotechnological revolution, analyzing its possible impact on production and agricultural markets in Mexico, as well as on consumption. It shows that the new scientific revolution will have an impact on the entire economy and on the agrarian social structure and analyzes its effect on food prices and on the redefinition of consumption patterns:
These elements suggest that we are on the threshold of a type of agriculture in which the processes will be similar to those found in industry, with greater automation (even computerized in some of its stages) and without any link to the traditional production frameworks that currently persist. This will initially spark a major dispute over land and subsequently lead to an almost definitive elimination of small producers, although accompanied by an increase in the occupation of certain areas in the initial stages of technological incorporation (Torres Torres, 1990, p. 143).
36The technological issue is also analyzed in the work of Herrera et al. (1994). The author and coordinator of the Latin American World Model of 1977, was, at that time, also coordinating a major technological futures study in Latin America, maintaining the normative approach of the former futures study but delving deeper into the logic of the scenario method by incorporating the concepts of “heavy trends,” “seeds of the future,” and identifying trend scenarios and a desirable scenario, with endogenous development. The study presents a normative scenario exercise, with analysis of possible trajectories.
37This study by Herrera takes a different approach to the technological foresight studies that was generally encouraged by international organizations during this period. Technology is analyzed with an emphasis on the social and political dimensions that frame its development and appropriation by Latin American countries and focuses on developments in biotechnology, microelectronics and new materials technologies. The conditions of poverty among the population and food shortages are, for this study, overcome with structural reforms, such as agrarian reforms, but within the framework of other reforms, such as urban reform or regional integration. The environmental dimension is also considered, although not yet in terms of climate change. As such, this study is considered to correspond to the structuralist approach, although it contemplates some elements that now form part of the more contemporary sustainable food systems approach. The excerpt below illustrates the spirit in which the general issues are addressed, as well as those of food and agricultural production:
Access to land for the poor, through agrarian reform, is a means of increasing food production in these countries. (…) However, land reform is not expected to address the food and other needs of the urban sector in the short term, as its immediate objective is to improve income distribution in rural areas, allowing a marginal population no access to the means of production. Its main impact will be to improve the supply of food to the rural population itself. (…) The agricultural sector should have a certain technological plurality, between a more productive segment, but with a low demand for employment, and a less productive sector with a higher demand for employment. This plurality should gradually be reduced. (…) The central guideline of economic policy will be to resume sustainable growth in the region. The region possesses a broad base of natural resources that can ensure the fulfillment of this objective, both in agriculture and in industry. There is sufficient agricultural land to feed the population and to support the other functions of agriculture, such as exports, production of raw materials and energy. However, since economic resources for agriculture are limited, the strategy will have to give priority, in the first stage, to domestic demand for food (Herrera et al., 1994, pp. 99-102).
38In terms of the foresight methods used in the studies, the projections continued, but new methodological approaches more typical of the futures studies discipline were also being included, such as the scenario method – with horizons of between 10 and 15 years – the Delphi method and the technological roadmapping method. The latter two are related to the field of technology foresight.
39In summary, in the 1990s, foresight studies in general were attracted by technological and agrifood market changes, although other voices appeared in the incipient field of futures studies, pointing out the structural, social and economic aspects, and the difficulties for the Region’s countries to come out ahead in light of the persistent social and food shortages in Latin America.
Regional agrifood foresight in the 2000s
40During the first decade of this century, foresight studies in the region became significantly more widespread. The survey identified 26 studies during this period, more than doubling the number from the 1990s. For the first time, rather than multilateral organizations being the dominant force in terms of the production of studies, that position is now occupied by academic spaces and scientific journal publications. Figure 2.3 shows the distribution of studies by type of publication during the period.
Figure 2.3. Agrifood foresight studies published in the period 2000–2010, by publication type.
*INIA: National Institute of Agricultural Innovation.
41In total, among academic publications, those produced by universities (graduate theses and books) and those in scientific journals, represent 65% of the studies for the period. These are largely case or chain studies carried out in different countries: Brazil (7), Mexico (4), Argentina (2), Peru, Colombia and Chile (1). These studies already echo the development of the scenario method, in particular by applying some of the methods disseminated by Michel Godet (Godet & Durance, 2011). Publications carried out in government agencies make up the second largest group, representing 23% of the total, with six studies conducted: one carried out in Brazil (the Brazil 3 Eras [Brasil 3 Tempos] project), two carried out within the framework of the Argentina’s National Science and Technology Agency and three carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in Colombia. Notable characteristics of these studies include the predominance of technology foresight studies, as well the increased diversity of methods used: scenarios, Delphi, technology roadmaps.
42Two studies (8%) produced by National Agricultural Research Institutes (NARIs) were identified, one from Argentina and the other from Chile. The Argentinian project makes projections for agricultural production based on estimates of production gaps, land availability and technologies (Cap, 2002). The Chilean study also makes projections but introduces some elements relating to the scenario method: it includes elements of trend breaks and projects more than one future for each production chain or category (Odepa, 2004).
43Following the trend of the previous decade, the works in this period focused on technology, generally understood as the axis of development, analyzing the role played by information and communication technologies and biotechnology. The agrifood sector presented an incipient concern for the problems of food security, incorporating the term and the concept of food security, as had been previously addressed in Europe, with emphasis mainly on access and availability (in five studies), and also incorporating the food sovereignty approach (in two studies). The issue of environmental sustainability linked to food appears to a lesser extent (in one study). The predominant emphasis of the period was, however, on productivity, efficiency and the global insertion of the region’s different productions. Many of the studies did not even address the food issue at all (12 studies). In most of these studies, the analysis is oriented towards chains and the “closure of productivity gaps,” considered parameters of global competitiveness, with regard to export opportunities and the possibility of producing specialties. Figure 2.4 shows the distribution of the studies during that period according to their approach to the food issue.
Figure 2.4. Approach to the food issue in the 2000–2010 period.
44Halfway through these first ten years, the bioeconomy began to emerge as a conceptual umbrella for thinking about primary-based activities, as a way of redefining the concept of agroindustry in the light of the circular economy. In this sense, the terms of sustainability, with food security as an auxiliary concept, became installed in studies on agrifood systems. The “Biofuels and Food in Latin America and the Caribbean” scenario study published by the IICA (Gazzoni, 2009), presents an analysis of the correlation between food security and competition for productive resources, especially land, as a result of the increase in biofuel production. The study also highlights the comparative advantages of the region for the development of biofuels and concludes that there is no conflict with the destination of land for other uses (such as food) and warns about certain environmental risks of production, but also the opportunity to enter the carbon credit market. The main focus of the study on the food issue is that of “market food.”
45Another aspect to highlight regarding the studies in this period is the loss of the regional integration horizon as a strategy for overcoming food crises and deficits. In general, these exercises are focused on national or smaller scales (subnational, regional, provincial, state or chain). Only one regional level study was identified (the aforementioned study on biofuels published by the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture [IICA]). Integration into world markets and global value chains is the main strategy envisaged in the studies. This aspect is discussed in more detail in the following section.
Futures studies and agrifood problems in the last decade and general considerations on the period as a whole
46The last decade shows a continued trend for the process of dissemination of futures studies. Again, the number of studies is more than double that identified in the previous decade. Sixty-two studies were identified for this period spanning 2010 to 2020.
47As we saw in the previous section, the regional scale had lost relevance as a relevant scale for analyzing the possibilities for the future of Latin American economies during the 2000s, and also as a scale for developing viable strategies for overcoming economic difficulties. This is also reflected in the last stage, although regional studies once again feature within the larger set of studies.
48During this period, national (23 studies) and sub-national (30 studies, including sub-national and organizational or chain scales) level projects predominated. It is also interesting to note the emergence of other regional scales, such as South America or the Southern Cone, which became relevant in light of the agriculturization27 processes developed with the increase in soybean cultivation and within the framework of the new integrationist strategies promoted by the governments representative of the shift to the left during this period. A total of eight studies consider supra-national regional scales (three from South America, two from the Southern Cone and three from Latin America). Figure 2.5 shows the scale chosen by all the studies for the entire period considered in the investigation.
Figure 2.5. Number of studies per scale of analysis per period.
49During this period, futures studies were also disseminated in other areas. In particular, the Region’s various national agricultural research institutes (INIAs) began to develop more sustained futures studies. The number of these studies in academic circles continues to grow, especially in scientific journals (where 18 articles on futures studies were identified). This data is compiled in figure 2.6, which shows the number of futures studies identified by type of publication and period.
Figure 2.6. Number of studies by type of publication per period.
*INIA: National Institute of Agricultural Innovation.
50With respect to addressing problems related to the food issue, although a large number of studies do not problematize the issue (16 studies, 25% of the studies of the period), this percentage is much lower than that of the previous decade, when a total of twelve studies failed to problematize the food issue, representing 46% of the studies of the period. Even fewer studies flagged food issues as a problem in the 1990s, as it did not feature in 55% of the studies reviewed. These relationships can be seen in figure 2.7.
Figure 2.7. Mode of treatment of the food issue in the studies reviewed.
51Certain approaches that had already made a tepid appearance in the previous decade, such as food sovereignty and security, technical food and sustainability of food security, were consolidated during this period (between five and six studies for each approach). The structuralist approach, which did not feature during the previous decade, also makes a reappearance in three of the studies. And the new integrated approach of Sustainable Food Systems (SFS) appears in another five studies. Characteristically, this approach promotes a comprehensive approach to food issues, taking into account the economic, social, health, and general context aspects of food “systems”.
52The analysis of the papers of this period highlights the fact that the majority of the studies that address the issue from this comprehensive approach are those that take a territorial foresight approach, i.e., they are analyzing the possible futures of food, but in a way that is situated within a particular region or territory. This is particularly true of the futures studies produced in Argentina and Colombia linked to territorial planning processes, the analysis of horticultural production systems and situated analyses of land use and innovation processes.
Summary and conclusion
53Beyond the general descriptions detailed in the different sections, there remains a synthesis and a concluding reflection on the uses of foresight and future studies to address food problems in Latin America.
54In the set of works analyzed, it is possible to see the incidence of different spaces in the promotion of foresight techniques and a forward-looking approach to the analysis of agricultural and food issues. The influence of international organizations in promoting the medium- and long-term view can clearly be observed at the beginning of the period considered (the 1970s and 1980s), with a strong incidence of the structuralist approach by ECLAC, emphasizing the promotion of regional integration strategies and promoting critical visions of the future that had no place within national technical organizations.
55From the start of the 1990s and during the 2000s, in particular, there was also an increase in the number of organizations analyzing the potential for expansion of Latin American agriculture, repositioning the region as a supplier of food for international markets. In the 1990s, technological foresight approaches gained prominence, an emphasis that was maintained throughout the subsequent decades, although other approaches were adopted from the 2000s onwards. In the 2000s, the number of foresight studies multiplied and so did the approaches to food-related problems. Emphasis was placed on policy analysis in order to promote food security (the food sovereignty approach), technical issues related to food and the association with environmental issues. To a lesser extent, there is an association with health issues.
56The adoption of a more comprehensive approach to food problems within futures studies coincided with an emphasis on the territorial dimension. Certain exercises, based on the concern for specific territories in particular, prompted the adoption of an approach that made it possible to coordinate different dimensions, with greater balance.
57It is also worth highlighting the recent reprioritization of food issues, which had been largely neglected in agricultural sectoral foresight studies, particularly in the 1990s.
58The analysis of the types of publication of the studies also shows that they only appear in publications aimed at a broad audience in the early stages, when the studies financed by international organizations are co-published with a mass distribution publishing house. The number of futures studies produced by agricultural research institutes and universities (generally in postgraduate theses related to rural administration or agribusiness, with some examples of studies in the social sciences) has grown over time. There has also been an increase, albeit very gradual, in the number of studies produced by other public bodies. The mass publications produced for a general audience are, however, no longer being produced. Discussions on productive and food futures thus seem to be limited to technical arenas, and the impact on decision making, instead of being oriented towards generating debates and raising awareness among a broader public.
59The survey and analysis carried out suggest that a revival of the treatment of the food issue with a long-term and comprehensive view is essential, especially in these times of economic, health and environmental crisis that we are experiencing today. It would be useful to promote these long-term analyses within different arenas, not only within technical spheres, but also as part of political debate, to a more general audience.
60One aspect that remains to be comprehensively examined is the effective capacity of these studies to influence the definition of public policies, both in their formulation and in the problematization that defines public problems. Through this initial study, and by means of a quantitative approach, it has been possible to determine the focus of agrifood studies, where they are produced, to whom they are addressed, and the scale they propose for the analysis of problems. In order to further examine their power to influence, other methods of investigation need to be implemented and different sources triangulated.
61In this case, the contribution has been limited to analyzing certain chapters of the history of foresight studies in the Region, the scales that have been relevant for thinking about agrifood futures, and the methods and strategies of approach that have been promoted by these studies. Much remains to be explored on the basis of this first investigation, which we hope will also be useful for other teams taking on the task of learning about the use of futures studies in the Region.
Bibliographie
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Annexe
Appendix 2.1. Approaches to the food issue identified in Latin American futures studies
Approach |
Description |
Structuralist approach |
Linked to the school of Latin American structuralism. Poverty, food deficit and malnutrition are linked to the structural problems of Latin American development. |
Technical food |
Prioritizes the issue of food safety and food security. |
Food sovereignty and security |
Assumes that food security is subordinated to the possibility of implementing policies at regional, national or local level to regulate aspects related to production, distribution and access to food, and even to define research, development and innovation agendas. |
Food from the global market |
The market and global food trade are the ways to promote and guarantee food security (exclusively through market mechanisms). |
Does not problematize the food issue |
– |
Classical concept of food security |
Emphasizes the analysis of the conditions of access and availability of food, taking the concept of food security from the initial problematization of the issue in post-war Europe (in terms of food security: access and availability). To a lesser extent, it addresses the problems of nutrition and safety. |
Environmental sustainability of food security |
Addresses food security as it is affected or affects the environmental issue, particularly in connection with climate change. |
Integrated approach to Sustainable Food Systems (SFS) |
Considers food and nutritional security in relation to the given context as an economic, social and environmental system, taking into account economic, sanitary and environmental aspects of production processes and marketing and consumption circuits. |
Appendix 2.2. Foresight methods mentioned in the chapter (brief description)
Method |
Description |
Mathematical digital simulation models |
Simplified representation of reality that facilitates the correlation of quantitative variables through formulas and mathematical functions and is operated by means of a computer program capable of processing large amounts of data. There are different types: econometric, statistical, input-output, optimization, dynamic simulation or evolutionary models (Gallopín, 2015). |
Scenario |
The scenario method is one of the most widely used methods in foresight studies. The method proposes the elaboration of a set of scenarios to explore the possible futures of a given problem based on the analysis of multidimensional causal chains and bifurcation points. Each scenario is composed of a time horizon, a hypothetical sequence of events articulated around a narrative and a future condition or image derived from this sequence. There are different classifications and types of scenario methods. A simple classification is that which distinguishes predictive, exploratory or normative scenarios. |
Delphi |
Expert consultation method that is carried out in different rounds of inquiry, collecting anonymous feedback from the different contributors, promoting the elaboration of collective visions on possible futures. |
Roadmapping, especially technology roadmaps |
Method involving the strategic planning of a possible route for the development of an innovation, company or goal, using visual representations and integrating the contribution of different experts or stakeholders through participatory workshops. Widely used in technology foresight to analyze the future trajectory of a certain innovation. |
M. Godet Methods |
A set of four methods designed for strategic foresight processes. They are methods that support the process of constructing possible scenarios and defining a strategy. Together they are designed to conduct a “strategic foresight” process (Godet and Durance, 2011). They are based on other existing methods or techniques, to which a dynamic of consultation and interaction between experts is added, as well as certain conceptual elements from the scenario method. Each method is also associated with software for information processing and analysis. The four methods that make up this set of methods are: MIC MAC (a cross-impact matrix version), MACTOR (a stakeholder analysis version), MORPHOL (a morphological analysis version), SMIC-PROB-EXPERT (a Delphi version). |
Regulatory scenario or backcasting |
A normative scenario or “backcasting” is a method that sets out to reconstruct the decisions and causal chains that should be developed over the defined time horizon to achieve an image of the future, based on an image or vision of a desirable future. There are different types of backcasting, some are based on mathematical models (optimization, for example) and others are built on participatory workshops with social actors. |
Normative methods (or approaches) |
Refers to methods that aim to analyze possible trajectories to reach a desirable (not only possible) future. The Backcasting method, the Three Horizons method and the vision building method are examples of normative methods. |
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) |
Method designed by Sohail Inayatullah that proposes to deepen the analysis of used and alternative futures, based on a layered analysis of the official and current discourses in which the problems are presented, scientific explanations, social discourses and worldviews, and the myths and metaphors that support the previous layers. The method is based on a logic of deconstruction and reconstruction of discourses. |
Source: Based on Börjeson et al. (2006); Gallopín (2015); Van Beers et al. (2016); Godet & Durance (2011); Patrouilleau (2020).
Annex. List of studies identified in the survey
Studies with global scale
Da Silva, A.T.B., Spers, R.G., Wright, J.T.C., & da Costa, P.R. (2013). Cenários prospectivos para o comércio internacional de etanol em 2020. Revista de Administração, 48(4), 727–738.
FAO. (2018). The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050. https://www.fao.org/3/I8429EN/i8429en.pdf
Herrera, A.O., Scolnik, H.D., Chichilnisky, G., Gallopín, G.C., Hardoy, J.E., Mosovich, D., Oteiza, E., de Romero Brest, G.L., Suárez, C.E., & Talavera, L. (1977). Catástrofe o nueva sociedad: modelo mundial latinoamericano. CIID.
Regional studies: Latin America
Ardila, J. (2010). Extensión rural para el desarrollo de la agricultura y la seguridad alimentaria: aspectos conceptuales, situación y una visión de futuro. IICA. http://repiica.iica.int/docs/B1898e/B1898e.pdf
Arnold, D., Fajgenbaum, J., Goel, V.K., Ortega Goodspeed, T., Kharas, H., Kohli, H.S., Kohli, H.A., Loser, C.M., Lustig, N., Puryear, J.M., Shifter, M., Sood, A., & Szyf, A.Y. (2010). América Latina 2040. Rompiendo con las complacencias: una agenda para el resurgimiento. The Asian Development Bank. https://scioteca.caf.com/handle/123456789/713
Bitar, S. (2014). Las tendencias mundiales y el futuro de América Latina. CEPAL. http://hdl.handle.net/11362/35890.1
ECLAC. (1974). La alimentación en América Latina dentro del contexto económico regional y mundial. http://hdl.handle.net/11362/32327
ECLAC. (1977). Tendencias y proyecciones a largo plazo del desarrollo económico de América Latina (Resolución 366(XVII)) [Long-term trends and projections of Latin American economic development (Resolution 366(XVII)]. In Annual Report (7 May 1976–6 May 1977) Vol. 1 (pp. 221–224). United Nations. http://hdl.handle.net/11362/16047
ECLAC. (1979). Las transformaciones rurales en América Latina: ¿desarrollo social o marginación? http://hdl.handle.net/11362/27897
Gallopín, G.C. (Ed.). (1995). El futuro ecológico de un continente. Una visión prospectiva de la América Latina. Editorial de la Universidad de las Naciones Unidas.
Gazzoni, D.L. (2009). Biocombustibles y alimentos en América Latina y el Caribe (Serie Crisis Global y Seguridad Alimentaria, no. 7). IICA.
Gómez Oliver, L. (1994). La política agrícola en el nuevo estilo de desarrollo latinoamericano. FAO.
Herrera, A., Corona, L., Dagnino, R., Furtado, A., Gallopín, G., Gutman, P., & Vessuri, H. (1994). Las nuevas tecnologías y el futuro de América Latina. Siglo XXI Eds-Editorial de la Universidad de las Naciones Unidas.
Martner, G. (Ed). (1986). América Latina hacia el 2000: opciones y estrategias. Editorial Nueva Sociedad.
Pinto, A. (1982). Estilos de desenvolvimento e realidade latino-americana. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 2(1). https://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org.br/repojs/index.php/journal/article/view/1949
Quintero, R. (1993). Prospectiva de las agrobiotecnologías (Serie Documentos de Programas, Vol. 34). IICA. https://repositorio.iica.int/handle/11324/16701
Timmer, P. (1997). Tendencias de la agricultura en la era de la globalización: una visión prospectiva. COMUNIICA, 2(7), 40–50. http://repiica.iica.int/docs/B1741E/B1741E.PDF
Sub-regional studies: South America and the Southern Cone
Acioly, L., & Moraes, R.F.D. (Eds.). (2011). Prospectiva, estratégias e cenários globais: visões de Atlântico Sul, África Lusófona, América do Sul e Amazônia. IPEA. https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/livros/livros/livro_prospectiva_cenariosglobais.pdf
Gauna, D., Oviedo, S., Campos, S.K., Gomes Pena Jr., M.A., Vial, A., & Szostak, J. (2019). El Cono Sur ante una instancia crucial del desarrollo tecnológico global. PROCISUR-IICA. https://repositorio.iica.int/handle/11324/13245
PROCISUR. (2010). Rol del Cono Sur como reserva alimentaria del mundo y los posibles escenarios para la investigación, la innovación y el desarrollo. https://www.procisur.org.uy/adjuntos/161234.pdf
UNASUR. (2018). Estudio prospectivo: Suramérica 2025. Segunda Parte. CEED-CDS UNASUR.
Studies on Argentina
Baum, G., & Artopoulos, A. (Eds.). (2019). El Libro Blanco de la prospectiva TIC, Proyecto 2020. Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación Productiva, Argentina. http://cdi.mecon.gov.ar/bases/docelec/va1028.pdf
Bocchetto, R., Ghezan, G., Vitale, J., Porta, F., Grabois, M., & Tapia, C. (2014). Trayectoria y prospectiva de la agroindustria alimentaria argentina: agenda estratégica de innovación. Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación Productiva, Argentina. https://inta.gob.ar/sites/default/files/libro_trayectoria_y_prospectiva_de_la_agroindustria_alimentaria_argentina_-_agenda_estrategica_de_innov.pdf
Cap, E.J., & González, P. (2002). Argentina: una exploración de la frontera de posibilidades productiva del sector de granos y oleaginosas. INTA, Instituto de Economía y Sociología. https://inta.gob.ar/sites/default/files/script-tmp-frontera.pdf
De Martinelli, G. (2017). Los escenarios sociales del desarrollo agropecuario pampeano. Un ensayo de prospectiva. In De Martinelli, G., & M. Moreno (Eds.), Cuestión agraria y agronegocios en la región pampeana: tensiones en torno a la imposición de un modelo concentrador (pp. 401–432). Universidad Nacional de Quilmes. http://www.iesac.unq.edu.ar/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Cuestión-agraria-y-agronegocios-en-la-región-pampeana-Guillermo-De-Martinelli-Manuela-Moreno-digital.pdf
Falivene, G., Artusi, J.A., Arrejoria, G., & Curró, C.V. (2018). Prospectiva y desarrollo local: el caso del municipio de Santa Anita, departamento Uruguay, provincia de Entre Ríos, Argentina. In Cuervo, L.M., & F. Guerrero (Eds.), Prospectiva en América Latina: aprendizajes a partir de la práctica (pp. 83–100). CEPAL.
Fasciolo, G.E. (Ed.). (2011). El futuro ambiental de Mendoza: escenarios (Serie Estudios no. 72). EDIUNC.
Ferro Moreno, S. (2015). Análisis estratégico de los sistemas agroalimentarios agroindustriales de carne caprina de las provincias de La Pampa y San Luis [Doctoral thesis, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba]. Ediciones INTA. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/995
Gallopín, G.C. (2004). La sostenibilidad ambiental del desarrollo en Argentina: tres futuros. CEPAL. https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/5624/1/S049721_es.pdf
Gómez Oliver, L. (1974). Posibilidades de la Provincia de Tucumán como exportadora de limones. Consejo Federal de Inversiones (CFI).
Kozel, A., Martínez, L., Taraborrelli, D.S., & Carvalho, N. (2017). El sistema agroalimentario del Área Metropolitana de Buenos Aires al 2030–2050. Ejercicio exploratorio de prospectiva territorial. INTA. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/1975
Leavy, S. (2007). Análise prospectiva dos agronegócios no município de Pergamino, Buenos Aires, Argentina [Master’s thesis, Universidad Federal Rio Grande Do Sul]. UFRGS Digital Repository. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/8550
Loewy, T. (2008). Indicadores sociales de las unidades productivas para el desarrollo rural en Argentina. Revista Iberoamericana de Economía Ecológica, 9, 75–85.
Mariano, R., & Ferro, S. (2019). Escenarios prospectivos estratégicos a 2030 de las producciones agrícolas bajo riego de la cuenca del río Colorado (La Pampa, Argentina). Revista de Estudios Políticos y Estratégicos, 7(2), 40–68. https://revistaepe.utem.cl/?p=1051
Molina, N.A. (2017). Información para la toma de decisiones en cadenas agroalimentarias: una propuesta metodológica para un entorno citrícola internacionalizado [Doctoral thesis, Universidad Nacional de Rosario]. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Rosario. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/6792
Moreno, S.F., Mariano, R.C., & Balestri, L. (2015). Análisis estratégico-prospectivo de un caso: matadero frigorífico de carnes alternativas en la provincia de la pampa. Semiárida, 25(2), 9-18. https://cerac.unlpam.edu.ar/index.php/semiarida/article/view/2517/2405
Patrouilleau, R.D. (Ed.). (2012a). Escenarios del sistema agroalimentario argentino al 2030. INTA. https://inta.gob.ar/sites/default/files/script-tmp-inta_escenarios_del_saa_al_2030_13-9-12.pdf
Patrouilleau, R.D. (Ed.). (2012b). Prospectiva del desarrollo nacional al 2015: Las fuerzas que impulsan los futuros de la Argentina. INTA.
Patrouilleau, R.D., Kozel, A., & Lacoste, C. (2015). Un nudo en el foco: Vigilancia prospectiva del Sistema Agroalimentario Argentino 2015. INTA. https://inta.gob.ar/sites/default/files/inta_-nudo_en_el_foco-completo_baja.pdf
Ruíz, A.M., & Vitale, J.A. (2011). Prospectiva y estrategia: el caso del Plan Estratégico Vitivinícola 2020 (PEVI) (Estudios socioeconómicos de los sistemas agroalimentarios y agroindustriales, No. 7). INTA. https://inta.gob.ar/sites/default/files/script-tmp-7_prospectiva_estrategia_pevi.pdf
Schuff, P.V., Gonzalez, L., Moltoni, L.A., Sanchez, G., Carrapizo, V.N., & Cladera, J.L. (2017). La producción y gestión del conocimiento científico y tecnológico en el CNIA: una experiencia prospectiva. INTA. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/1978
Subsecretaría de Agricultura. (2020). Prospectiva Agrícola. Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Pesca, Argentina. https://www.magyp.gob.ar/sitio/_pdf/Prospectiva-agricola-2030.pdf
Subsecretaría de Planificación Territorial de la Inversión Pública. (2013). Los territorios del futuro. Escenarios prospectivos del territorio argentino y sus regiones hacia el año 2026. Ministerio de Planificación Federal, Inversión Pública y Servicios, Argentina. https://www.mininterior.gov.ar/planificacion/pdf/Los-territorios-futuro-(abril-2013).pdf
Studies on Brazil
Angelotti, F., Petrere, V.G., Teixeira, A.D.C., Sá, I.B., & de Moura, M.S.B. (2010). Cenários de mudanças climáticas para o semiárido brasileiro. In Sá, I.B., & da Silva, P.C.G. (Eds.), Semiárido brasileiro: pesquisa desenvolvimento e inovação (pp. 159-198). EMBRAPA. https://www.embrapa.br/busca-de-publicacoes/-/publicacao/861948/cenarios-de-mudancas-climaticas-para-o-semiarido-brasileiro
Bensussan, J.A. (1996). Prospectivas da economia brasileira para 1995–2015. Indicadores Econômicos FEE, 24(2), 286–320. https://revistas.planejamento.rs.gov.br/index.php/indicadores/article/download/1218/1569
Bodini, V.L. (2001). Uso da análise estrutural prospectiva para a identificação de fatores condicionantes da competitividade na agroindústria brasileira [Doctoral thesis, Universidad Federal de Santa Catarina]. Repositório Institucional UFSC. http://repositorio.ufsc.br/xmlui/handle/123456789/79466
Camargo, M.E., Priesnitz Filho, W., Silva, J.L.S., Malafaia, G.C., Cruz, M.R., & Motta, M.E.V. (2014). Construção de cenários prospectivos em sistema agroalimentar de Vacaria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. Agroalimentaria, 20(38), 137–149. http://www.saber.ula.ve/handle/123456789/38144
Da Silva, V., de Mello, N.T.C., Junqueira, J.R.C.D.M., Elizabeth, A., Verdi, N.A.R., Torquato, S.A., & Chabaribery. (2008). Diagnóstico e prospeccao para o setor agropecuário paulista: subsídios para acoes de políticas públicas. Plan Plurianual del Estado de Sao Paulo.
ECLAC & Patrimonio Natural. (2013). Amazonia posible y sostenible. http://hdl.handle.net/11362/1506
EMBRAPA. (2014). Visão 2014–2034: o futuro do desenvolvimento tecnológico da agricultura brasileira. https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/103222/1/Visao-2014-2034-O-Futuro-de-Desenvolvimento-Tecnologico-da-Agricultura-Brasileira-sintese.pdf
Gaya Scandiffio, M.I. (2005). Análise prospectiva do álcool combustível no Brasil-Cenários 2004–2024 [Doctoral thesis, Universidade Estadual de Campinas]. Repositorio UNICAMP. http://www.repositorio.unicamp.br/Busca/Download?codigoArquivo=473836
Nogueira, A.C.L. (2001). Mecanização na agricultura brasileira: uma visão prospectiva. Caderno de Pesquisas em Administração, 8(4), 77–87.
Núcleo de Estudos Estratégicos (NAE) e Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos (CGEE). (2004). Projeto Brasil 3 Tempos. Documento de referência da dimensão do conhecimento.
Porto, C. (2010). Macrocenários da Amazônia 2000–2020. Parcerias Estratégicas, 6(12), 185–213. http://seer.cgee.org.br/index.php/parcerias_estrategicas/article/viewFile/190/184
Quirino, T.R. (1998). Agricultura e meio ambiente: tendências. In da Silveira, M.A., & S.L. de O. Vilela (Eds.), Globalização e a sustentabilidade da agricultura (pp. 109–138). Embrapa-CNPMA. https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/151814/1/1998PL002-Quirino-Agricultura-3592.pdf
Ribeiro, E.M. (2013). Prospectiva e sustentabilidade do ecoturismo: uso da técnica de construção de cenários no Estado do Amazonas [Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Brasilia]. Repositorio Universidade de Brasilia. https://repositorio.unb.br/handle/10482/14319
Schmidt Cortez, A. (2007). Métodos de cenários prospectivos como ferramenta de apoio ao planejamento relativo a substituição do atual uso do solo por florestamento: estudo de caso: a Bacia do Rio Ibicuí – RS [Doctoral thesis, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria]. Repositorio UFSM. http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/3564
Silva, J.E.A.D. (2014). Cenários prospectivos em redes de cooperação: o caso da Associação dos Produtores Rurais dos Campos de Cima da Serra – APROCCIMA [Master’s thesis, Universidade de Caxias do Sul]. Repositorio UCS. https://repositorio.ucs.br/handle/11338/112
Torres, D.F.U. (2015). Análise prospectiva para o setor atacadista de flores e plantas ornamentais no Brasil e suas tecnologias da informação e comunicação [Master’s thesis, Universidad Federal Rio Grande Do Sul]. UFRGS Digital Repository. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/158929
Wright, J.T.C., dos Santos, S.A., & Johnson, B.B. (1992). Análise prospectiva da vitivinicultura brasileira: questões críticas, cenários para o ano 2000 e objetivos setoriais. EMBRAPA-CNPUV. https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/60695/1/CNPUV-DOC.-6-92.pdf
Studies on Chile
Andrade, L.I., Ríos, S.M., & Torres, G.E. (2012). Análisis prospectivo de la estructura agraria en Chile basado en un modelo de dinámica de sistemas. In Memorias del X Congreso Latinoamericano de Dinámica de Sistemas (pp. 403–409). https://comunidadcolombianads.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/2012-Memorias-X-CLADS-Argentina.pdf
Apey, A., Barrera, D., & Rivas, T. (Eds.). (2017). Agricultura chilena. Reflexiones y desafíos al 2030. Oficina de Planificación Agrícola, Ministerio de Agricultura, Chile. https://www.odepa.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ReflexDesaf_2030-1.pdf
GFA Chile Consultores. (2015). La fruticultura chilena al 2030: Principales desafíos tecnológicos para mejorar su competitividad. FIA. http://bibliotecadigital.fia.cl/handle/20.500.11944/145492
Larraín Prieto, R., Melo Contreras, Ó., Díaz Rojas, L.G., & Fernández López, J. (2018). Estudio prospectivo: industria de la carne bovina y ovina chilena al 2030: principales desafíos tecnológicos para mejorar su competitividad. FIA. http://bibliotecadigital.fia.cl/handle/20.500.11944/146251
Martínez, E.A., Jorquera-Jaramillo, C., Veas, E., & Chia, E. (2009). El futuro de la quínoa en la región árida de Coquimbo: lecciones y escenarios a partir de una investigación sobre su biodiversidad en Chile para la acción con agricultores locales. Revista Geográfica de Valparaíso, 42, 95–111.
Ministerio de Agricultura de Chile, Fundación para la Innovación Agraria, & Banco Mundial. (2010). Ejercicio ‘Chile agroalimentario, forestal y rural 2030.’ Implicancias de los escenarios. http://bibliotecadigital.fia.cl/handle/20.500.11944/147908
ODEPA. (2005). Agricultura chilena 2014: una perspectiva de mediano plazo. Ministerio de Agricultura, Chile. https://www.odepa.gob.cl/odepaweb/servicios-informacion/publica/Agricultura2014.pdf
Palma, C. (1990). Análisis prospectivo de las agroexportaciones. CEPAL. http://hdl.handle.net/11362/29871
Ulloa, P., Coper, S., Rovira, A., Azurmendi H. (2005, October 18–21). Estudio prospectivo para la provincia de Valdivia en el año 2020 [Conference presentation]. X Congreso del CLAD sobre la Reforma del Estado y la Administración Pública, Santiago, Chile.
Studies on Uruguay
Ackermann, M.N., & Cortelezzi, Á. (2017). Mercado de trabajo agropecuario: situación y prospectiva hacia el Uruguay Agrointeligente de 2030. Anuario OPYPA.
Arocena, R., & Bortagaray, I. (1996). Competitividad: ¿Hacia dónde puede ir Uruguay? Primera etapa de un ejercicio colectivo de prospectiva” tipo Delfos.” Ediciones Trilce.
Oficina de Planeamiento y Presupuesto (OPP). (2017). Visión 2050: Tacuarembó en la Región Norte. Memoria del proceso prospectivo. Presidencia de la República Oriental del Uruguay. https://otu.opp.gub.uy/gestor/imagesbiblioteca/Visión_2050_Tacuarembó_Prospectiva_Fase_2.pdf
Schwoob, M.-H., Dobermann, A., & Treyer, S. (2016). Agricultural transformation pathways initiative: 2016 report. IDDRI, Rothamsted Research. https://www.iddri.org/sites/default/files/import/publications/atpi---report-2016.pdf
Studies on Venezuela
Giacalone, R., Hernández, M.Y., & Zerpa, S. (2013). El Estado como actor del Sistema Alimentario Venezolano (SAV): conflicto y escenarios prospectivos. In Gutiérrez, S.A., (Ed.), El Sistema Alimentario Venezolano a comienzos del Siglo XXI. Evolución, balance y desafíos (pp. 367–416). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Consejo de Publicaciones de la ULA. http://www.saber.ula.ve/bitstream/handle/123456789/39056/capitulo9_giaca_hern_zer.pdf?sequence=1
Gutiérrez, A. (2015). El sistema alimentario venezolano (SAV): evolución reciente, balance y perspectivas. Agroalimentaria, 21(40), 19–60. https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/1992/199241170002.pdf
Mazzonelli, J., Jelambi, F., Alvarez, E., de la Canal, H., & Nava, B.O. (1979). Estudio prospectivo de la leptospirósis porcina en granjas organizadas de Venezuela. Boletín de la Oficina Sanitaria Panamericana (OSP), 87(1). https://iris.paho.org/bitstream/handle/10665.2/17351/v87n1p60.pdf
Studies on Mexico
Camacho-Sanabria, J.M., Juan-Pérez, J.I., & Pineda-Jaimes, N.B. (2015). Modeling of land use/cover changes: prospective scenarios in the State of Mexico. Case study – Amanalco de Becerra. Revista Chapingo Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente, 21(2), 203–220. doi:10.5154/r.rchscfa.2014.10.049
Castro, M.C. (2000). La seguridad alimentaria de México en el año 2030. Ciencia Ergo Sum, 7(1), 49–55. http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=10401706
García, J.A.E., Flores, J.L.D., & López, G.M. (2014). Investigación biotecnológica pecuaria en México: situación actual, prospección y estrategias de fortalecimiento. Revista Legislativa de Estudios Sociales y de Opinión Pública, 7(14), 147–176. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=5656167
López, G.M., García, J.A.E., Reyes, V.C., Santillán, F.R., & Barrera, J.L.J. (2008). Estudio prospectivo al año 2020 sobre la importancia de la calidad de la leche y queso en la cadena agroalimentaria en el Estado de Hidalgo, México. Revista Mexicana de Agronegocios, 22, 551–569. https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/141/14102210.pdf
Martínez, D.H.F. (2013). Agenda prospectiva de investigación de la cadena productiva de la panela y su agroindustria. Tecnura: Tecnología y Cultura Afirmando el Conocimiento, 17(36), 72–86. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/4239477.pdf
Méndez, Á.A.C., López, G.P., & Alejandre, F.J.V. (2010). Análisis al plan nacional de desarrollo: una visión prospectiva. In XV Congreso International de Contaduría, Administración e Informática. ANFECA. http://congreso.investiga.fca.unam.mx/docs/xv/ponencias/179.pdf
Miklos, T., & Arroyo, M. (2016). El futuro de México a debate (prospectivas de ayer, de hoy y para mañana). Multidisciplina, 23, 120–147. http://revistas.unam.mx/index.php/multidisciplina/article/view/58589/51801
Patrón Ramírez, Z. (2002). Hacia el desarrollo sustentable de México: una visión prospectiva [Master’s thesis, Institúto Technologico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey]. RITEC. http://hdl.handle.net/11285/567387
Pérez Haro, E. (2013). Prospectiva de la agricultura en el desarrollo de México. El Cotidiano, 177, 47–60. https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=32527004006
Perló Cohen, M., & Inclán Oseguera, S. (Eds.). (2018). El futuro de México al 2035: una visión prospectiva. Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. http://ru.iis.sociales.unam.mx/bitstream/IIS/5471/2/futuro_mexico_2035_final.pdf
Torres Torres, F. (1990). La segunda fase de la modernización agrícola en México: un análisis prospectivo. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, UNAM. http://ru.iiec.unam.mx/id/eprint/1342
Ysunza, M. (2001). Escenario futuro de la agricultura en México: un referente para el perfil del ingeniero agrónomo. Sociedades Rurales, Producción y Medio Ambiente, 2(2), 31–42. https://sociedadesruralesojs.xoc.uam.mx/index.php/srpma/article/view/25/25
Studies on Colombia
Angulo Cuentas, G.L., Charris Polo, M., & Ariza Pertúz, V.D. (2009, November 25–27). Prospectiva tecnológica aplicada a la agroindustria en el Departamento del Magdalena [Conference presentation]. ALTEC 2009: Innovación y creatividad para el desarrollo sostenible, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia.
Castellanos Domínguez, Ó.F., Torres Piñeros, L.M., & Flórez, D.H. (2010). Agenda prospectiva de investigación y desarrollo tecnológico para la cadena productiva de la panela y su agroindustria en Colombia. Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural, Colombia. https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/3408
Gómez Sabogal, P. (2018). Estudio competitivo y prospectivo 2030 a las Mipymes sector horticultor – Sabana Centro Cundinamarca – Colombia, ante los retos del futuro con la seguridad alimentaria Bogotá – Región. Global Conference on Business and Finance Proceedings, 13(2), 846–859. https://www.theibfr.com/wp- content/uploads/2018/09/ISSN-1941-9589-V13-N2-2018.pdf
Gualteros Sánchez, J.M. (2011). Estudio prospectivo de la cadena productiva del biodiésel a partir de palma africana en Colombia [Master’s thesis, Universidad Nacional de Colombia]. Repositorio UNAL. https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/7856
Herrera, T.J.F., Schmalbach, J.C.V., & López, J.A. (2009). Construcción de cadenas productivas del sector agrícola mediante modelos de redes: caracterización, simulación de escenarios y prospectiva. Dimensión empresarial, 7(1), 11–21. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/3990193.pdf
López, L.F., Mejía González, D., Gómez, J.A., & Albarracín, C. (2009). Agenda prospectiva de investigación y desarrollo tecnológico para la cadena productiva de plantas aromáticas, medicinales, condimentarias y afines con énfasis en ingredientes naturales para la industria cosmética en Colombia. Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural, Colombia. http://repository.humboldt.org.co/bitstream/handle/20.500.11761/33656/Agendaprospectivainves.pdf
Martínez Torres, J.C., & Amézquita López, J.A. (2013). Análisis prospectivo del talento humano del sector agrícola en el departamento de Bolívar al año 2033. Escenarios: Empresa y Territorio 2(2), 297–319. http://revistas.esumer.edu.co/index.php/escenarios/article/view/105/129
Mojica, F.J., Trujillo Cabezas, R., Castellanos, D.L., & Bernal, N. (2007). Agenda prospectiva de investigación y desarrollo tecnológico de la cadena láctea colombiana. Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural, Colombia. https://sioc.minagricultura.gov.co/SICLA/Normatividad/2007-06-30%20Agenda%20Prospectiva%20Investigacion%20Cadena%20Lactea.pdf
Morales Trochez, W.M. (2009). Estudio prospectivo sobre la producción y comercialización de la carne del curí desde el resguardo indígena de Guambia, una alternativa alimentaria para Colombia y el mundo hacia el 2014 [Undergraduate thesis, Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia]. UNAD. https://repository.unad.edu.co/handle/10596/1220
Moreno-Valderrama, M.N., Flórez Martínez, D.H., Yepes Vargas, L.A., & Uribe Galvis, C.P. (2017, September 25–28). Articulación de la oferta y la demanda en ciencia, tecnología e innovación a través de agendas dinámicas territoriales y focos prospectivos: caso de estudio sector agropecuario colombiano [Conference presentation]. VIII Congreso GIGAPP, Madrid, Spain.
Ortiz-Guerrero C, Arango J.H., Solórzano V.G., & Barón P.R. (2017). Trayectorias históricas y escenarios prospectivos de las reformas de tenencia colectiva de la tierra en áreas forestales comunitarias en Colombia (Documento de trabajo 233). CIFOR. https://www.cifor.org/publications/pdf_files/WPapers/WP233Ortiz-Guerrero.pdf
Pinto Hernández, J.E., & Salazar de Cardona, M.S. (2014). Cambio climático y vulnerabilidad: prospectivas para la región nororiental de Colombia-Santanderes. BISTUA Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Basicas, 12(1), 16–45. https://revistas.unipamplona.edu.co/ojs_viceinves/index.php/BISTUA/article/view/1817/807
Sanchez, E.G., Peña, A.A.R., Torres, M.Y., & Rojas, N.A.B. (2014). Plan prospectivo para el desarrollo agrario en las Regiones colombianas a partir del posconflicto al año 2025. El Ágora USB, 14(2), 397–417. https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/4077/407747670004.pdf
Uribe Galvis, C.P., Sarmiento Moreno, L.F., Bochno Hernández, E., Andrade Benitez, G., Sánchez Rojas, M.R., & Hernández Iglesias, N. (2011). Agenda prospectiva de investigación, desarrollo tecnológico e innovación para la seguridad alimentaria colombiana, vista desde la disponibilidad de alimentos. Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural, Colombia. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12324/12692
Studies on Peru
Noriega Araníbar, M.T. (2009). Estudio prospectivo en la cadena vid-pisco. Ingeniería Industrial, 27, 141–167. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12724/2480
Polo Campos, Á.F. (2019). Sostenibilidad agroindustrial en el ámbito de la tercera etapa del proyecto Chavimochic: un enfoque prospectivo. Scientia Agropecuaria, 10(1), 125–135. doi:10.17268/sci.agropecu.2019.01.14
Studies on Costa Rica
Segura Ramírez, L. (Ed.). (2016). Análisis prospectivo sobre el impacto de la producción de café de exportación en el desarrollo futuro del cantón de Tarrazú en Costa Rica [Special section]. Revista Centroamericana de Administración Pública, 71, 101–131. https://ojs.icap.ac.cr/index.php/RCAP/article/download/61/121/288
Studies on Ecuador
Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería, Acuacultura y Pesca, Ecuador. (2016). La política agropecuaria ecuatoriana: hacia el desarrollo territorial rural sostenible: 2015-2025.
Studies on Cuba
Feria, U.P., Dorado, R.M.C., & Pérez, M.M. (2018). Evaluación prospectiva de la eficiencia económica de la producción de frijol en la provincia Santiago de Cuba. TERRA: Revista de Desarrollo Local, 4, 71–97. https://ojs.uv.es/index.php/TERRA/article/view/10090/11730
Notes de bas de page
22 In Spanish, the term “prospectiva” is used for this discipline of futures studies. This term derives from the French prospective, which the French school used to define this discipline at the end of the 1950s. The French school was very influential, particularly in Latin America. In the English-speaking world, the term “foresight” is used (it would be the equivalent of prospectiva). Currently, at international level, the different schools are grouped around the area of “futures studies.” The plural acceptation of the English term “futures” is intended to accommodate different approaches, as well as to differentiate it from classical scientific foresight by taking into account the multiplicity of possible futures, an open conception of the future, and defining it as indeterminate (Bell, 2003). Another more recent acceptation is that of “anticipation studies,” a branch of futures studies that highlights the impossibility of foreseeing possible futures and that is proposed with an even more disruptive attitude than that of foresight, directly linked to action, i.e., to the design of ways of using the future to change the present (Miller, 2018).
23 Some of the categories used to define the different approaches are related to the référentiels used to analyze policies in the first chapter of this book. However, the set of categories does not correspond completely. Each chapter addresses a different object of analysis: futures studies in this case, and policies in the case of the former.
24 It should be clarified that not all papers contain the same components. They do not all generate scenarios or outline policy recommendations.
25 A further clarification regarding the universe of studies addressed is that studies with a medium- or long-term time horizon (more than 5 years into the future) were considered for analysis. Projections for 1, 2 or 5 years were not considered. There are studies that are carried out periodically by multilateral organizations that follow the social and food impact based on the evolution of economic growth and certain other variables on a year-by-year basis. These studies were not considered as they generally look at a short-term period of between 1 and 5 years. Working in prospective terms requires a longer time horizon precisely to allow for possible and desirable transformations and for a longer-term perspective. The study also ruled out works that comment on other studies, futures studies manuals and publications that disseminate the discipline. In addition, since the unit of analysis is foresight studies and not publications, we have sought to only include the original (or, failing that, the most complete) study in each case, on which a number of publications can sometimes be based. Another practical criterion was also being able to access the studies, whether printed or digital publications.
26 In Argentina, for example, the foresight approach disseminated by the Futuribles organization had been echoed. José Luis De Imaz and Agustín Merello had begun to develop it, and in 1969 they even published an issue of a magazine in association with that organization called: Prospectiva. Revista de Futuribles (Merello, 1969). See in this regard the work of Kozel and Patrouilleau (2016).
27 The Southern Cone scale correlates to a process that has been developing since the new millennium and is currently gaining momentum throughout the region corresponding to the shifting of the agricultural frontier, displacing and reconfiguring other activities such as livestock, and of agricultural activity, with the preeminence of soybean cultivation. Argentina, southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia are gradually becoming involved in this process and with the introduction of the technological package associated with soybean cultivation in the new millennium. For more information, see: Manuel Navarrete et al. (2005) and Manzanal (2017).
Auteurs
Researcher at the Economy and Foresight Research Center (CIEP–INTA, Argentina). Advisor for the Programa Argentina Futura, Chief Cabinet Secretary. Coordinator of the degree program in Foresight studies and futures analysis at CIDES-UMSA, Bolivia. patrouilleau.mercedes@gmail.com
Researcher at the Economy and Foresight Research Center (CIEP–INTA, Argentina). Coordinator of the Platform for Contributions to the Development and Management of Public Policies. taraborrelli.diego@inta.gob.ar
Researcher at the Economy and Foresight Research Center (CIEP–INTA, Argentina). alonso.ignacio@inta.gob.ar
Le texte seul est utilisable sous licence Creative Commons - Attribution - Pas d'Utilisation Commerciale - Pas de Modification 4.0 International - CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Les autres éléments (illustrations, fichiers annexes importés) sont « Tous droits réservés », sauf mention contraire.
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