Table des matières

Sander van der Leeuw

Preface

Lena Sanders

Introduction

A collective and interdisciplinary project on the transitions in settlement systems

• The emergence and functioning of the project TransMonDyn: ‘strength of weak ties’ and ‘choreography’ of research trajectories
• The crossing of ‘thematicians’ and ‘modellers’ skills for an interdisciplinary co-construction
• A volume structured in three parts

Denise Pumain, Lena Sanders, Thérèse Libourel et al.

Chapter 1: Disciplinary convergences on the concept of transition

• The concept of transition: tacking between natural sciences and social sciences
• Formalising change
• Originality of social change
• An example of socio-spatial change interpreted in the framework of self-organisation theories
• Concepts for identifying and modelling transitions
• Different conceptualisations of system change in the socio-environmental sciences: transition, regime shift, alternative state change
• Conceptualisation of change in computer science: the engineering of change
• Triggering factors: exogenous versus endogenous factors
• Effects of scale in the dynamics of a system
• Identification and anticipation of a transition in the empirical domain
• Conclusion: the particularity of human systems

Laure Nuninger, Lena Sanders, Arnaud Banos et al.

Chapter 2: A generic conceptual framework for describing transitions in settlement systems

Application to a corpus of twelve transitions between 70 000 BP and 2050

• The notion of settlement system: dynamics of reproduction and transformation
• Construction of a conceptual framework for identifying transitions from the thematic point of view
• Identifying regimes and transitions in the empirical world
• Chronology versus temporality of the regimes
• How can one identify transition in the observable world?
• Construction of a corpus of twelve case studies of settlement system transitions
• Conclusion

Arnaud Banos, Florent Le Néchet, Marie-Jeanne Ouriachi et al.

Chapter 3: Simulating transition: an introduction to spatio-temporel models

• Introduction
• A continuous reference model: The Fisher-Skellam model
• A discrete model of reference: the Young model
• Comparison of the two models
• Proposition of a new model in TransMonDyn: the ColoDyn model
• Discussion

Christophe Coupé, Jean-Marie Hombert, Florent Le Néchet et al.

Chapter 4: Transition 1: Modelling the migrations and peopling of new geographic areas by Homo sapiens

• Homo sapiens conquering the Earth
• The emergence of modern Man in the context of human evolution
• The ‘Out of Africa’ theory
• A first major transition in the peopling process
• The causes of the first transition
• Modelling the peopling of new territories
• Models of migration and peopling of new spaces: a brief state of the art
• The principal components of the HU.M.E. model
• Block-by-block construction of the model
• Exploring by simulation the conditions for success in peopling a new territory
• Discussion and perspectives

Christophe Coupé, Jean-Marie Hombert, Florent Le Néchet et al.

Chapter 5: Transition 2: Modelling the peopling of an already inhabited territory: the case of expanding Bantu populations and Central African forest foragers

• The expansion of the Bantu populations
• The Bantu migrations and their geographic and environmental context
• The Bantu and their neighbours: the Central African forest foragers
• The relations between Bantu farmers and Central African forest foragers
• Specification of the transition
• The HU.M.E.-2  ^{model: Modelling migrations in a context of interactions between groups}
• Modelling the interaction between agents in a context of competition for resources: a rapid overview of the literature
• First step in the construction of the HU.M.E.-2 model: adapting the parameters of the HU.M.E. colonisation model
• Second step in the construction of the HU.M.E.-2 model: formalising the interaction between groups with different behaviour
• Simulating the crossing of the rainforest by Bantu populations: some simulation results
• Construction of indicators to characterise the passage through the forest of the Bantu group-agents
• Impact of the deterrent effect of the forest on the expansion of Bantu group-agents
• Effects on the Bantu expansion of interactions with the FF group-agents
• Discussion

Timothy A. Kohler et Stefani A. Crabtree

Chapter 6: Transition 3: Village and Polity Formation in Pueblo Societies: How Population Growth Channels Social Processes in Neolithic Societies. The «Village» model

• Background: The Village Ecodynamics Project
• From Hamlets to Villages: Explaining Aggregation in Early Pueblo Societies
• From Villages to Polities: the «Polity» model
• The Depopulation of the Northern Southwest
• Conclusions

Denise Pumain, Clara Schmitt et Sébastien Rey-Coyrehourcq

Chapter 7: Transition 4: Modelling the emergence of cities

• Introduction: one or two ‘urban’ transitions?
• A multi-situated transition
• Defining the city
• Independent, therefore ‘necessary’, emergences
• From dispersed villages to a network of cities
• A highly stylised generic model
• Multi-agent modelling
• Principal rules of the model
• Measuring and calibrating the parameters of the model
• Results of the simulations and implications of the observations
• Conclusion

Laure Nuninger, Pierre Garmy, Thérèse Libourel et al.

Chapter 8: Transition 5: Modelling the territorial mutations of the Iron Age in southern Gaul (6th-5th centuries BC)

• The historical context of the transition
• An economic and social revolution
• The mutation of the settlement system
• Description of the transition of the settlement system between 900 and 200 BC
• From one regime to the other, from ‘fragmented’ to ‘continuous’ territory
• Schematisation of the transition and description of several processes
• Discussion

Marie-Jeanne Ouriachi, Frédérique Bertoncello et Alain Franc

Chapter 9: Transition 6: ‘romanisation’ (2nd century BCE – 1st century CE): power games between Romans and southern Gauls after the Conquest

• A narrative to clarify the transition from a thematic point of view
• Social organisation, forms of sociality
• Forms of power, administration, network coverage
• Modes of residence, occupation of the space
• Ways of feeding, relation to the environment
• Movement, transport, type of mobility
• Graphic modelling: the arrow diagrams of regimes 1 and 2 of the transition
• LUDUS: an attempt at modelling the relations between Romans and Gauls by means of game theory
• Brief chronological narrative of the interactions Rome / southern Gaul
• Circumscribing an object of modelling
• Game theory
• Choice and formalisation of the model: players and strategies
• Establishment of payoffs
• Ludus model
• To conclude: limits of the model and perspectives

François Favory, Hélène Mathian, Laurent Schneider et al.

Chapter 10: Transition 7: From the ancient to the medieval world (4th-8th centuries)

• Introduction
• The transition from late Antiquity in Languedoc-Roussillon
• The spatio-temporal framework of the transition
• Civic and ecclesiastical space: granularities and evolution
• The heritage of the Early Empire (third century)
• Evolution during late Antiquity
• The ecclesiastic geography
• The process of fragmentation of the ancient cities
• The creation of bishoprics
• The geography of royal power
• The factors in the disorganisation of the ancient civic framework
• From the narrative to its formalisation
• Hierarchical and spatial structures associated with the exercise of power
• Proposition of a conceptual framework for modelling
• The entities of the model
• Dynamic
• Discussion and perspectives

Robin Cura, Cécile Tannier, Samuel Leturcq et al.

Chapter 11: Transition 8: 800-1200. Emergence of enduring, concentrated and hierarchised settlement patterns in rural regions of North-Western Europe

• Introduction
• Setting time limits for the transition
• Regime 1
• Regime 2
• Transformations between 800 and 1200
• At the level of north-western Europe in its entirety
• Within the regional sub-units (provinces, principalities)
• The area of study
• First step in the modelling
• Identification of the entities involved in the transition
• Identification of the processes at work in the transition
• Establishing rules of behaviour for each social entity
• Towards a multi-agent model of transition simulation
• General architecture of the SimFeodal model
• The agents of the model
• Dynamics modelled
• The initial state of the model
• The space modelled: a Touraine very much stylised
• Population clusters
• The peasant households
• The lords
• Churches
• Detailed description of the behaviour of agents
• Lords (see Table 4)
• Acquisition and exercise of signorial rights
• Construction of castles
• Cession of signorial rights
• Amount of fees collected
• Power of lords
• Peasant households
• Satisfaction of peasant households
• Migration of peasant households
• Churches
• Some simulation results
• Conclusion

Anne Bretagnolle et Alain Franc

Chapter 12: Towards integrated systems of cities (France, 18th-19th centuries)

• Introduction
• Cities and exchanges at the opening of the 18th century: an organisation in lines and stars
• An urban infrastructure dominated by regional capitales
• Major routes and road policy
• Transformation of the space of inter-urban exchanges
• Modelling the historical distances
• Analogy with an electric circuit and resistances
• Weighting by elevation
• Simplification of the graph
• Efficacity of the exchanges: the invention of connectivity
• Increase in speed : the progressive avoidance of high and low points
• Rationalisation of routes: reciprocal adaptation of road and urban networks
• Two processes for territorial integration by the systems of cities
• Modelling the emergence of a system of national exchange
• Modelling regional hierarchies
• Discussion and perspectives

Florent Le Néchet

Chapter 13: Transition 12: From urban sprawl to polycentric metropolitan regions: forms of functioning and forms of governance

• Introduction
• Description of the transition
• Case study: evolution of the flow of commuters in the Paris Basin
• From new geographic objects to new forms of territorial governance
• Case study: the impossible emergence of governance on the scale of the PMM Rhine-Ruhr?
• What final regime for the transition?
• Modelling the emergence of a centralised governing entity
• Discussion 

Cécile Tannier, Alain Franc, Marie-Jeanne Ouriachi et al.

Chapter 14: Between models and narratives: transitions in settlement systems

• Introduction
• Model
• Narrative as model
• Models, between data and theory
• The model, passageway between the particular and the general
• Modelling: associating rigour and uncertainty
• Dynamic, innovation and emergence in models: from physics to the social sciences
• Space and time, place and moment
• Dynamic, memory and innovation
• Regarding emergence
• A panoply of tools for modelling transitions in settlement systems
• Formalism of mathematical and computer models
• Relations among data, models and narratives in the twelve transitions of TransMonDyn
• Conclusion

Sébastien Rey-Coyrehourcq, Robin Cura, Laure Nuninger et al.

Chapter 15: Towards reproducible research in an interdisciplinary framework: issues and propositions regarding the transfer of the conceptual framework and the replication of models

• Introduction
• Validating methods and results by their reproducibility: which ones, why and how?
• Introduction to the notions of repeatability, reproducibility and replicability
• The question of reproducibility in social sciences
• To reproduce measurements or a reasoned analysis?
• Toward the question of equifinality
• What about the problem of data?
• Transferring the conceptual framework of TransMonDyn to other spatio-temporal contexts
• Development of a procedure for the transfer of the conceptual framework
• Application to three intra-urban case studies: Beauvais, Noyon and Tours
• Confrontation of the results of the three experiments
• Means for achieving good reproducibility for the models
• Implementing a procedure for reproducibility
• Reproducibility, free access and simulation in theory
• The replicability of the code and the execution of a model
• The reproducibility of the exploration of the model
• The reproducibility of results: reproducible data and analyses
• A proposition for an application to the Young model
• Publishing the model
• Publishing the exploration in reproducible form: a collaborative tool
• Conclusion

Lena Sanders, CNRS, Thérèse Libourel et al.

Chapter 16: Ontological points of view on the transitions of settlement systems

• Introduction
• Definition of a research framework linking the empirical realm to a formal model
• Ontological approaches
• From the ‘referent’ to the conceptual framework of the thematicians: reflection on the ontological choices (explicit or implicit) made to model the different transitions
• Strategies of co-construction of the models
• Different ontological points of view for comparing the transition models of the TransMonDyn project
• Conclusion

Marie-Jeanne Ouriachi, Hélène Mathian, Elisabeth Zadora-Rio et al.

Chapter 17: From the conceptualisation of the transition to its modelling: interdisciplinary feedback on the TransMonDyn experiment

• Identifying a transition: a subject for discussion
• Data – at the heart of the relation between thematicians and modellers
• The modeller – an objective mediator?
• Conclusion