1Our conclusion is organised according to four clearly articulated proposals:

• highlight the world-class potential of polymetallic crusts in the French Polynesian EEZ;
• mention the specific risks their exploitation would involve;
• emphasise the need to deepen knowledge, which currently is insufficient;
• recommend the formulation and implementation of a policy for developing this potential.

2The implications for the recommendations are discussed in their own section. In this conclusion we focus specifically on the public policy issues raised by the possible development of an industry to exploit deep-sea mineral resources in French Polynesia.

Optimal timing: prior to any action

3The situation is ideal in French Polynesia, in that no deep-sea mining is currently taking place and no exploration permits have been granted. This means there is time to work on an original policy, tailored to the realities in the country and including participation from residents. Taking into account cultural practices and social representations of the environment where the resource is found will help further understanding and anticipate reactions of the affected populations.

4In terms of the regulatory framework, the bulk of the work remains to be completed, including devising the types of legal and administrative instruments used to regulate an emerging deep-sea mining activity. A mineral development strategy must be set out in such a way as to unite all stakeholders. The strategy document must make multi-year commitments on the part of public authorities. The ability to anticipate is essential, because this has the potential to be a very extensive sector of activity involving international companies. There is a significant risk that the Polynesian government could be overwhelmed by the expert capabilities (technical, economic or even legal) of its partners or by the scope of the issues (particularly in politics and economics). Hence the importance of instituting safeguards and, before the first exploration permit is even applied for, showing the ability to anticipate by defining a public policy line, implementing suitable administrative and legal instruments and strengthening (or developing) the necessary skills and expertise.

5At the same time, it is necessary to anticipate the establishment of participatory and democratic governance that brings together neighbouring populations, municipalities, civil society organisations, research institutions, experts, etc. This sort of dynamic would boost responsiveness on the part of the populations affected by mining projects when faced with investors who have a very different timeframe for their operations, and public officials who have other priorities, such as elections.

The challenging issues of timeframes and diverse risks

6The possible launch of deep-sea mining in French Polynesia would set in motion a complex set of timeframes and generate specific risks and uncertainties.

7Mining projects take place over long periods of time, including the highly uncertain exploration period (only a small fraction of mining projects ever get past this phase) and result in massive flows of resources and players over several decades of operations and post-operational work. This time period is taken into account economically and, to that end, the issue of investment costs for exploration is particularly relevant.

8This aspect brings us back to the exploration period and the time for acquiring, processing and making use of the necessary data, i.e. the period for conducting the scientific campaigns.

9These business and scientific timeframes are confronted with ecosystems where events occur at an entirely different pace. Polymetallic crusts are found in habitats that are still not well understood; these are open, connected to their surroundings and also highly specialised. These habitats take a long time to establish themselves, so their resilience is likely quite low and the speed at which they regenerate after being disturbed or partially destroyed is certainly quite slow.

10Institutional and policy changes take place in a variety of time periods: the relatively short term of electoral mandates, the sometimes rapid pace of transfers of power, the longer term of political networks, and the inertia of regulatory frameworks.

11Finally, the Polynesian people have inherited a long cultural past and a collective historical memory; at the same time, they are preoccupied with daily necessities and concerns for future generations. This means that each social actor operates in several different timeframes at once.

12These societal, ecological, political and industrial timeframes are not only diverse, and sometimes even contradictory; they are also subject to a number of uncertainties, ranging from risks that are more or less quantified to absolute unknowns (Adam, 1998; Dupuy, 2002). The lack of knowledge cuts across all stakeholder groups involved in the potential mining arena. However the consequences and impacts of the decisions and actions to be taken are not the same for all.

13This situation requires caution: this does not mean inaction, but rather the implementation of the principles of precaution, deliberation and accountability.

The need for an explicit, tailored public policy

14This expert review contains a survey of existing knowledge in the field of deep-sea mineral resources in the Polynesian context. This survey, which includes an identification of uncertainties, is broad as it encompasses geological, technological, economic, social, legal, ecological and geographic knowledge. A comparison of all this information made it possible to identify prospects, gaps and uncertainties. This ultimately involves proposing a series of conclusions and recommendations that could provide the basis for a set of guidelines and, more broadly, a public policy for the topic.

15The mining sector, with its very long time periods (it takes several decades to implement a mining operation) presents a challenge for politics, with its different agendas and timeframes. It requires a long-term vision and consistent actions, involving a large number of stakeholders whose interests, expectations and understanding can vary considerably. Moreover, the linear view of public policies, progressing from design to implementation to evaluation, rarely corresponds to reality. Public policies often serve as an a posteriori legitimisation of an action rather than a guide, and the issue of evaluation is often overlooked, particularly in France, and by extension in its overseas territories. Here we have an opportunity to formulate a policy using an explicit strategy and involving the implementation of sectoral policy measures prior to undertaking any action.

16The process of implementing this policy must take place in several stages, with an emphasis on deepening knowledge, particularly during data acquisition campaigns (see the proposal for an exploration campaign in III-2). These are necessary for confirming whether there is socio-economic value and, if there is, for developing balanced partnerships with the private sector. This balance does not come about automatically and public power plays a decisive role.

17The first stage would focus on increasing knowledge: efforts to identify the potential of polymetallic crusts (and perhaps the areas with polymetallic nodules) must be intensified to find one or more areas of significant interest (crusts of 10 cm or more, average cobalt of at least 1%, carbonate substrate and low slope). Then, it will be necessary to perform laboratory tests to recover the maximum amount of metal or even carry out a pilot test to obtain initial indications of the possible costs of processing the ore. At the same time, the surrounding habitats must be explored and their functioning understood in order to determine the best strategies for limiting the effects of any future exploitation (or for deciding not to mine an area if the expected effects seem too destructive). Lastly, the cultural representations and social uses of the ocean must be further studied.

18This information will be used to create more precisely documented scenarios than the ones set out here. These scenarios will need to take into account the markets for the different metals (cobalt, copper, nickel, manganese, titanium, platinum, etc.) and consolidate the economic hypotheses. Scenarios relating to industry options, stakeholder participation and socio-environmental issues will round out the list of economic scenarios.

19Finally, based on the information acquired and the scenarios developed, policy decisions can be made, first with regard to whether or not to formulate a deep-sea mining policy, and at the same time addressing how this choice will be made: the institutional and legal framework, methods for involving residents, political and administrative instruments, administrative, legal and technical skills, etc.

20The monitoring and evaluation will make it possible to adjust these as needed. Mobilising scientific, technical and civil expertise, will enhance this public policy instrument based on the principle of political and ethical accountability (Jonas, 1995).