Economic impact

1Overall, the results on the weight and structure of the informal economy and the underlying rationale have led to a revision of viewpoints (and preconceived ideas) and therefore of global policies (on employment, on the fight against poverty, etc.). They have also resulted in certain stakeholders in the formal sector changing their behaviour and strategies.

2Consequently, in addition to the precariousness of living conditions and the marginalisation of actors in the informal economy, three major findings (the predominance of the informal economy, its non-transient nature and its contribution to the economy), which tend to be confirmed in most of countries, are now increasingly considered when trying to understand the informal economy. They have led to a change in the viewpoints that previously condemned this segment of the economy a priori.

3As a specific example of impact, speeches (by policy-makers, leaders of entrepreneurial groups,1 etc.) have been delivered echoing the results of the surveys on the weight of informality and emphasising the point that policies must take this into account. The decisions taken in Vietnam (following the first surveys) to institutionalise measuring informality (and include it in the official missions of the GSO) is another example. Lastly, at the level of the development community (measures advocated by the ILO, UNDP or the World Bank), there has been a gradual paradigm shift from the 1990s to the present day: from policies that were essentially focused on formalisation and largely repressive, there has been a shift to a more pragmatic approach, accepting that support can be given to the informal sector without necessarily forcing it to formalise. The results from the 1-2-3 system are among the elements that have contributed to these changes.

4Data from 1-2-3 surveys can be used to revise GDP (which includes only part of the informal economy).2 In this respect, thanks to cooperation with the IRD, Peru is the first developing country to regularly publish a comprehensive breakdown of the informal economy in the national accounts. These results have provided researchers and public policy makers with a valuable tool for measuring the relative importance of the informal economy in GDP and for gaining detailed knowledge of its characteristics. This has contributed to improving the link between statistical research and public policy. The demand from policy makers and researchers for this information has motivated the Inei to periodically update the satellite account of the informal economy (new versions in 2017 and 2018 covering the periods 2007-2016 and 2007-2017).

5The knowledge gained from surveys on the informal economy helps to define public policies for the protection of workers, support for microenterprises (training adapted to needs, access to credit) or incentives for formalisation.

6For example, in Madagascar, the 1-2-3 survey, renamed Enempsi (National Survey on Employment in the Informal Sector) in 2012, was widely used to develop the PNEFP (National Employment and Vocational Training Policy) by the Ministry for Employment, Technical Education and Vocational Training (MEETFP) with support from the ILO and Unesco.

7In Vietnam, the recognition of the importance of the informal sector in 2011 led to its inclusion for the first time in the Ministry for Labour’s National Employment Strategy. The government is focusing on providing benefits for the “formalisation” of productive units, through access to credit or a better market location (see Vass publications in 2017). The new Enterprise Law of 2017 introduced support and incentives for formalising sole proprietorships (adoption of a formal microenterprise status): tax incentives, accounting training, etc. These measures are part of the government’s 2017 target to double the number of formal businesses in Vietnam from 500,000 to 1 million by 2020.

8In Peru, the Ministry for Labour’s Sectoral Strategy for the Formalisation of Work 2018-2021 was approved by a ministerial resolution (RM No. 071-2017-TR) published in the Official Gazette on 7 March 2018. This new strategy prioritises actions with a focus on segments where there continue to be high levels of informality. It proposes five specific objectives relating to the improvement of employability and labour productivity, the conditions that stimulate the formal labour cycle, the strengthening of regulatory capacities, the culture of formalisation, and knowledge management. On reading the summary, there is a fairly extensive appropriation of recent debates on the concepts and measures of informality, as well as intensive use of the results of the 1-2-3 surveys adopted and adapted by the Inei and of the satellite account of the informal economy.

Social and political impact

9The informal sector has entered public debate (Peru): debates on the reality and extent of informality have been sparked and a category of actors (the “informal”) has been socially recognised.

Institutional impact

13The institutional impact is the strengthening of the credibility of the national statistical institutes, thanks not only to the skills acquired but also to the mobilisation of (appropriation/institutionalisation) of an efficient and relevant tool: (i) for monitoring employment and living conditions among the population; (ii) making available reliable and relevant data on the informal sector (public goods, response to user demand); (iii) providing inputs for preparing national accounts, with the inclusion of satellite accounts of the informal economy in the national accounts (objective achieved in the case of Peru).

14It should be noted here that this result on institutional credibility has been particularly significant for Instat in Madagascar. Statistical production has been used for economic analysis, and this know-how has itself resulted in knowledge transfer through the dissemination of results. The effort to make good use of the results of Madio surveys (economic studies, public presentation, creation of a journal, etc.) has paid off, generating a real virtuous circle: the results of surveys produced in real time and the thematic analyses that result from them generate interest and provide fresh resources for new surveys. Not only has Madio succeeded in creating a strong demand for its products, but the expression of this demand is itself a powerful motivating factor for managers and reinforces the trust between the institution and the users.

15The intense policy of dissemination and utilisation of results agreed to by the project corresponds to a deliberate methodological choice. It is based on the observation that the decline of African national statistical institutes is partly attributable to the inability of statisticians to respond to demand in a timely fashion and with the required quality. However, in a context of extreme scarcity of resources and where the “statistical culture” of decision-makers is limited, statisticians are challenged to prove the fundamental interest of the outputs they provide.

Capacity building

16The skills of management staff, researchers and other actors (e.g. decision-makers, civil service executives, civil society) participating in training workshops or benefiting from educational programmes (theses and masters) have been strengthened.

17We have already emphasised that skills have been built up at national level in the various countries: the managerial staff who were responsible for implementing the survey system have acquired experience and methodological and analytical expertise that they can pass on to others. However, beyond technical skills, the use and practical application of the survey and analysis system also helps to raise awareness of the importance of an approach and analysis method that attaches considerable weight to the way in which statistical data are produced and presented to the general public. More specifically, it is a question of favouring an approach that anchors its analyses firmly in the field while taking into account national contexts and data collection imperatives at the beginning, and the expectations of decision-makers and the general public at the end. Would it not be fair to say that this approach (found in the Dial approach mentioned above), which has been used to train a large number of researchers (in the Global North as well as in the Global South), has in a way “set the standard” and that we could therefore speak of the “1-2-3 survey school”?6

18The skills acquired have also been used to gain access to high-level positions of responsibility. For example, among the senior statistician-economists that IRD researchers were able to train as part of the Madio project on the 1-2-3 survey and its derivatives (in addition to the nationally and internationally recognised experts mentioned above), one became Minister for Finance and another became Secretary General of the Ministry for Planning and the Economy.