Heat wave warning in Africa
p. 102-103
Résumé
By the end of the century, the Sahel could be hit by extreme heat waves. Even though the local population is accustomed to high temperatures, they could be affected by these extreme events.
Texte intégral
1In 2003, France discovered the potential lethality of heat waves. It introduced an alert and prevention plan which, during the next heat wave in 2006, paid off and limited the number of casualties. A few years later in 2013, researchers raised awareness of the impacts of climate change: residents of the Sahel region will face extreme heat events too and must be equipped with an appropriate warning system to avoid casualties during heat waves.
2What is a heat wave in these already hot regions? And what danger thresholds should be taken into account for populations accustomed to high temperatures? To answer these questions, researchers undertook studies in Senegal and Burkina Faso, two countries where population monitoring activities are carried out. They began working with national meteorological agencies with a view to publishing a weekly heat wave forecast bulletin. This has been a routine procedure since 2016.
3They subsequently decided to combine data on medical consultations and deaths from IRD’s observatories with meteorological data, with a view to developing warning signals. This attractive concept was difficult to implement as this information was not collected in real time but every six months, which required adjusting the thermal threshold assessment techniques used in the countries of the Global North.
••• Researchers lay the foundations for a heat wave warning system in Senegal and Burkina Faso •••
4In addition, they conducted an in situ survey of thousands of people to better characterise their living conditions as well as their perception of and vulnerability to heat waves. Preliminary results suggested that people aged over 55 are more likely to suffer when high temperatures continue over long periods and the night-time temperature does not drop, while children under five react more rapidly to sudden rises in temperature. This data is crucial in the development of an effective and appropriate warning system within the next few years.
“Heat waves are frequent weather events in the Sahel and have a strong impact on human health. Climate projections point to an increase in the intensity and frequency of these events. To this end, prevention through the real-time dissemination of weather and climate information to users in order to mitigate the impact of heat waves is crucial, hence the essential role of the ACASIS project, which implements an early warning system using NICTs (SMS alerts, voice calls, website, mobile application).”
Pape Ngor Ndiaye, chief forecaster at ANACIM, Senegal’s Meteorological Agency
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