Table des matières

Hakima El Haité

Hakima El Haité

Stéphanie Thiébault et Jean-Paul Moatti

Climate change in the Mediterranean

Stéphanie Thiébault et Jean-Paul Moatti

Le changement climatique en Méditerranée

Part 1. Mechanisms, observed trends, projections

Stéphanie Thiébault

• Introduction
• Introduction

Laurent Lespez, Laurent Carozza, Jean-François Berger et al.

Uncertainties, adaptability and resilience

• Introduction
• Methods
• 8.2. ka BP event and the Neolithization of Eastern Mediterranean
• 6.5-5 ka BP Rapid Climatic Changes and the “lost millennium” in SE Balkan archaeology
• 4.2 ka BP climatic event and settlement pattern changes in western Mediterranean
• 3.2 ka BP climatic event and sustainability of agro-pastoral activities in Eastern Mediterranean
• Conclusion

Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, Paulo Montagna, Laurent Dezileau et al.

• Introduction
• Climate and extreme events in the recent past
• Hydroclimate and vegetation changes in the Mediterranean region

Laurence Vidal, Ali Rhoujjati, Rachid Adallal et al.

• Introduction
• Study area
• Hydrological context of Lake Azigza
• Hydro-sedimentlogical context
• Conclusion and perspectives
• Acknowledgements

Véronique Ducrocq

Véronique Ducrocq, Philippe Drobinski, Silvio Gualdi et al.

• Introduction
• Mediterranean climate
• Temperature and precipitation variability
• Observed trends
• Mediterranean Sea
• Characteristics
• Observed trends
• Continental hydrological cycle
• Characteristics
• Observed trends
• Conclusion

Serge Planton, Fatima Driouech, Khalid EL Rhaz et al.

• Introduction
• Mean temperature and precipitation
• Mean hydrological cycle
• Warm spells

Samuel Somot, Gabriel Jorda, Ali Harzallah et al.

• Introduction
• Models and methods
• Future evolution of the Mediterranean Sea forcings
• Future evolution of sea circulation, temperature and salinity
• Sea surface temperature and salinity
• Deep layer characteristics
• Sea circulation
• Water transport through the Strait of Gibraltar and Mediterranean outflow water
• Mean sea level, storm surge and wind waves
• Mean sea level
• Storm surge
• Wind waves
• Conclusions

Véronique Ducrocq et Eric Gaume

Gilles Molinié, Michel Déqué, Erika Coppola et al.

Observed trends, future projections

• Extreme precipitation trends in the recent past
• Methods for trend analysis of extreme rainfall
• From regional to local trends in the recent past
• Regional change in extreme rainfall in future climates
• Modeling background
• Regional climate change: response to +2 °C
• Regional climate change: variability of the response to socio-economic scenarios
• Conclusions

Philippe Drobinski, Pinhas Alpert, Leone Cavicchia et al.

Observed trends, future projections

• Introduction
• Observed spatial and temporal variability of strong winds
• Projected changes in wind speed in the context of global change
• Consequences

Pere Quintana-Seguí, Eric Martin, Enrique Sánchez et al.

• Introduction
• Description of drought
• Mediterranean meteorological droughts
• Long term reconstruction of past hydrological droughts
• Drought processes and impacts
• Specific Mediterranean drought processes
• Drought and vegetation, as seen using remote sensing techniques
• Future trends
• Future droughts as seen by regional climate models
• Future Mediterranean river flows
• Conclusions

Eric Gaume, Marco Borga, Maria Carmen Llasat et al.

• The Mediterranean area is particularly exposed to flash floods
• Sources of information about flood magnitudes and impacts
• Magnitudes and seasonality of extreme floods around the Mediterranean Sea
• Analysis of deaths related to flood events
• Analysis of major flood peak discharges
• Seasonal distribution of extreme flood events
• Extreme Mediterranean floods compared to world figures
• Observed trends in flood magnitudes and frequency and projections
• Conclusions

François Dulac, Eric Hamonou, Charbel Afif et al.

• Introduction

• Natural sources
• Marine sources
• Emissions from vegetation
• Aeolian erosion/soil dust emissions
• Source apportionment
• Urban areas
• Source apportionment at the regional scale

• Processes
• Assessment of aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF)
• Implication of aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) in the Mediterranean water cycle
• Aerosol-cloud interactions and impact on precipitation
• Ongoing research and recommendations

• Impact of air pollution on health in Bejaia (Algeria)
• Impact of air pollution on health in Beirut (Lebanon)
• Impacts of natural particles in the Mediterranean on health
• Reducing air pollution in the Mediterranean region
• Recommendations

• Adaptation: the impact of climate change on air quality
• Surface ozone
• Particulate matter
• Mitigation: towards win-win solutions to limit global warming and improve air quality
• Way forward

• Acknowledgements

Part 2. Vulnerability and impacts

Yunne-Jai Shin

• Introduction

Fabio Benedetti

• Primary production and plankton communities in the Mediterranean Sea
• Climate variability influences plankton distribution and community composition
• How will anthropogenic climate change impact Mediterranean plankton?

Fabien Moullec, Fabio Benedetti, Claire Saraux et al.

• Changes in primary and secondary production affect food web dynamics and recruitment
• Climate change drives commercial fish production

Fabien Moullec, Frida Ben Rais Lasram, Marta Coll et al.

From individual to ecosystem responses

• Climate change affects functional traits of fishes
• Sea warming changes fish distribution and associated assemblages
• Climate Change affects migration patterns and phenologies

Fabien Moullec, Frida Ben Rais Lasram, Marta Coll et al.

• Fishing and climate act in synergy
• Climate-induced changes in commercial catches
• Adapting the whole management system
• Effectiveness of Marine Protected Areas
• Current stock assessments in the context of climate change

Joël Guiot

Marta Marcos, Gabriel Jorda et Gonéri Le Cozannet

• Introduction
• Sea level rise in the Mediterranean: why is it so complex?
• Present day sea level changes and the role of vertical ground motions
• Future projections of mean sea level in the Mediterranean
• Impacts of sea level rise on shorelines and on coastal flooding in the Mediterranean
• Shoreline retreat
• Conclusion
• Acknowledgements

Maria Snoussi et Alessio Satta

• Introduction
• Multi-scale coastal risk assessment for the Mediterranean
• Multi-scale coastal risk at the local scale (CRI-LS): the case of Tetouan coastline (Morocco)
• Conclusion
• Acknowledgements

Aurélie Blanfuné, Charles François Boudouresque, Thierry Thibaut et al.

Gilles Boulet

Yves Tramblay, Denis Ruelland, Lahoucine Hanich et al.

• Introduction
• Are bias-correction methods for climate model outputs valid under semi-arid conditions?
• Are hydrological models sufficiently robust to make future projections?
• How will projected climate change affect water resources?

Lionel Jarlan, Saïd Khabba, Camille Szczypta et al.

Assessing climatic drivers and impacts

• Climate change
• Anticipated societal changes
• The water tower in the mountain range
• Improving water irrigation planning
• Summary and conclusion
• Acknowledgements

Damien Raclot, Yves Le Bissonnais, Mohamed Annabi et al.

• Introduction
• Soil erosion in the Mediterranean basin
• Expected future changes in Mediterranean soil resources under global change
• Main challenges for the future of Mediterranean soil resources
• Toward a better knowledge of the factors and processes involved in soil erosion
• Toward the evaluation of soil risk
• Toward site specific conservation strategies
• Conclusions
• Acknowledgments

Guy Delrieu, Isabelle Ruin, Eric Gaume et al.

• A matter of space and time scales
• Complexity of the hydrologic response to extreme precipitation events
• How do individuals cope with flash floods?
• Conclusions

Christian Leduc, Antonio Pulido Bosch, Boualem Remini et al.

• Introduction
• Original features of groundwater resources
• Climatic change and groundwater
• Anthropization of groundwater resources
• Consequences of changes for groundwater

Wolfgang Cramer

• Introduction

Thierry Gauquelin, Geneviève Michon, Richard Joffre et al.

A social-ecological perspective

• Mediterranean forests, unique ecosystems?
• Structure and biodiversity
• Functioning
• Dynamics
• Mediterranean forests: a long history of agro-sylvo-pastoral management by rural populations and interactions between local societies
• Mediterranean forests and climate change
• Conclusion: reconciling particular ecological functioning, biocultural heritage and threats
• Acknowledgements

Florent Mouillot, Serge Rambal, Jean-Marc Limousin et al.

Resilient or close to tipping point?

• Introduction
• Theoretical framework for ecosystem stability assessment under climate change: resilience vs. tipping point?
• Comparative resilience analysis from a throughfall exclusion experiment (TEE) and climate gradient on a Quercus ilex monospecific coppice
• Diversity of water use strategies in mixed Mediterranean shrublands enhance ecosystem resilience to variable drought features
• Fire disturbances affecting MTEs: a process affected by climate change in a varying socio-economic context
• Conclusion

Frédéric Médail

• Introduction
• Insular plant biodiversity facing current global environmental change
• Widespread human impacts and land use changes
• Impacts of climatic change
• Impact of sea level rise
• Increasing forest fires
• Conclusion
• Acknowledgments

Bertrand Schatz, Hélène Vogt-Schilb, François Munoz et al.

The case of French Mediterranean orchids

• The time has come to document patterns of biodiversity variation in the Mediterranean
• The time has come to develop methods for the quantification of biodiversity changes
• Orchids as an ecological model to evaluate biodiversity shifts
• Outlook for the investigation of biodiversity changes in a context of global change
• Acknowledgments

Jean-François Guégan, Robert Barouki et Isabella Annesi-Maesano

• Introduction

Jean-François Guégan

• Extreme events do matter in the emergence of infectious diseases in the Mediterranean region
• Long term warming and infectious diseases in the Mediterranean region
• Climate-sensitive diseases does not mean climate-change sensitive
• Some infectious disease study-cases in the region
• Research initiatives needed on communicable diseases for the future

Isabella Annesi-Maesano

• Extreme weather and related events have direct health effects in the Mediterranean region
• Chemical and biological air pollutants have indirect effects on health in the Mediterranean region
• Non-communicable disease concerns in the future

Jean-François Guégan, Robert Barouki et Isabella Annesi-Maesano

• Main remarks and recommendations

Part 3. Adaptation, resilience, conservation of resources and prevention of risk

Pascal Marty

Ammar Belhimer, Jean-Philippe Bras, Baudouin Dupret et al.

A matter of principle or a deep-seated concern?

• Introduction
• Morocco
• Public policies
• Constitutional and legal measures
• Algeria
• National and international instruments
• Mechanisms and institutions
• Tunisia
• Constitutionalization
• Deteriorating environmental conditions and inadequate legal framework
• Conclusion

Mohamed Charef et Kamel Doraï

• A recent focus on the relation between climate change and migration
• Climate refugees: a new category
• Difficulties in quantifying environmental migrants
• A population unequally affected by climate change in the Mediterranean region
• Conclusion

Elodie Briche, Nicolas Martin et Salem Dahech

• Observations adapted to the urban complexity of Mediterranean cities
• Types of measurement in cities: stationary and mobile air temperature
• Application: measurement of the urban heat island in Sfax
• Is downscaling in modelling necessary?
• Are models adapted to the urban scale?
• Application: simulation of the humidex index for the Nice region

Emmanuel Torquebiau et Jean-François Soussana

• Introduction

Abderafi Charki, Vincent Dollé, Luc Martin et al.

• Introduction: context and challenges
• Strengthening conformity assessment systems
• Ensuring the reliability of controls
• Integrating quality and metrology in higher education and agricultural research
• Conclusion and perspectives

Marc Voltz, Insaf Mekki, Jérôme Molénat et al.

• Introduction
• The development of long term observatories
• The OMERE Observatories
• Examples of outputs from OMERE observation records
• Impact of climate variability on catchment runoff
• The potential of agricultural management for alleviating the impact of droughts
• Hydrological infrastructures as means for soil and water conservation
• Conclusion: advocating a long-term agro-ecosystem research network in the Mediterranean
• Acknowledgements

Jacques Lasseur, Véronique Alary, Adel Aboul-Naga et al.

A North-South Mediterranean analysis (France/Egypt)

• Introduction
• Case studies
• Conceptual framework
• Results
• Discussion and conclusion
• Acknowledgements

Anne Da Silva et Badr Benjelloun

• Introduction
• Context
• Knowledge of Mediterranean small ruminant stock
• Genetic erosion of locally adapted breeds
• Genetic uniqueness of locally adapted breeds

Florence Volaire, Rajae Kallida, Mark Norton et al.

The role of summer dormancy

• The importance and sustainability of grasslands and forage crops in the Mediterranean
• Improving perennial forage grasses in the Mediterranean
• Towards new drought-tolerant cultivars of perennial grasses

Evelyne Costes, Bouchaib Khadari, Hayat Zaher et al.

• Context
• Abiotic constraints and physiological tree responses
• Effects of high temperature on fruit yield and quality
• Possible climate change adaptations for Mediterranean fruit trees
• Innovative cropping systems for warm and dry conditions
• Conclusion

Chantal Le Mouël, Agneta Forslund, Pauline Marty et al.

• Introduction
• Agricultural imports cover 40% of regional food requirements and are increasing rapidly
• Under current trends the agricultural import dependence of the MENA region will continue to rise through 2050
• Climate change will contribute to increase agricultural import dependence in the MENA region, especially in the Maghreb
• Conclusion

Stéphanie Thiébault et Yildiz Aumeeruddy-Thomas

• Introduction

Yildiz Aumeeruddy-Thomas, Alicia Bailly, Samuel Alleaume et al.

• Oleaster and olive, a long history of man-forest interactions
• Objective
• Grafted oleaster-olive agroecosystems
• Modern olive plantations
• Landscape structure and topo-hydrological factors
• Discussion and conclusion

Yildiz Aumeeruddy-Thomas, Elisa Taschen et Franck Richard

Safeguarding Mediterranean food and ecological webs

• Introduction
• Black Truffle: an iconic product reflecting Mediterranean food webs
• The life cycle and ecology of the Black Truffle
• Social-ecological resilience: the truffle economy, market structure and institutions
• From knowing the “places” to co-constructing with researchers
• Synergies between local and scientific knowledge
• Discussion and conclusion

Romain Simenel et Yildiz Aumeeruddy-Thomas

Local meanings of argan tree and bee diversity within man-made territories

• Introduction
• Historical forest construction
• Beekeeping: intimate linkages to the mosaic of argan territories
• Conclusion

Bertrand Schatz et Edmond Dounias

• Introduction
• Honeybees as fundamental elements of services of pollination and food production
• Towards the homogenization of beekeeping practices and use of several honeybee landraces
• The changing world of honeybees, beekeeping and beekeepers
• Perspectives for pollination by honeybees and beekeeping

Eric Gaume

Freddy Vinet, Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi, Johnny Douvinet et al.

• Introduction
• Recent catastrophic floods: land use in question
• The evolution of the global disasters toll
• Recent floods in the Mediterranean showing the impact of urbanization
• Land use transformations, a key factor in flood related damage
• Demographic growth and urbanization
• Population growth and flood risk stakes
• Changes in runoff conditions
• How to control flood risk?
• Structural measures are still dominant
• The difficult control of land use
• Living with water?
• Conclusion

Nadia Fourrié, Hassan Haddouch, Pierre Brousseau et al.

• Introduction
• Numerical prediction of heavy precipitation systems
• Observations and their use in forecast models
• Vigilance (weather alert) maps and real-time monitoring of heavy precipitation
• Research to better understand and forecast heavy precipitation events
• Perspectives

Pierre Javelle, Isabelle Braud, Clotilde Saint-Martin et al.

• Introduction
• Highly distributed flash flood warnings: example of the AIGA system
• Towards the prediction of the possible impacts of flash floods
• Conclusion and perspectives
• Acknowledgements

Lauriane Batté, Fatima Driouech et Constantin Ardilouze

• Introduction
• Predictability of droughts and water resources
• Operational seasonal forecast activities
• Météo-France
• Seasonal forecasts at DMN
• MedCOF
• Future directions

Jean-Luc Chotte

What challenges?

• Introduction: adaptation, resilience, conservation of resources and prevention

Jean-Luc Chotte, Nabil Ben Kathra, Maud Loireau et al.

• Land degradation, desertification and land degradation neutrality: definitions

Houcine Khatteli, Rafat Ramadan Ali, Gilles Bergametti et al.

• Introduction
• Main processes and factors of desertification: surface crusting, runoff and water erosion
• Tillage erosion
• Wind erosion
• Salinization
• Main principles of desertification control and land rehabilitation: underlying ecological conditions and processes
• Considering the socioeconomic context
• Conclusions

Tiphaine Chevallier, Salwa Hamdi, Tahar Gallali et al.

• Two forms of carbon in Mediterranean soils
• How soil organic carbon benefits soil fertility and the environment
• Measuring or evaluating SOC after changes in management practices
• Carbon stock within the soil profile: the importance of deep carbon
• The vulnerability of soil carbon
• Conclusion

Robin Duponnois, Lahcen Ouahmane, Mohamed Hafidi et al.

• Introduction
• Approaches to AM application in forestry practices
• The “reductionist” approach (controlled mycorrhization)
• The “holistic” approach
• Conclusion

Denis Lacroix

• The Mediterranean: key facts and figures
• Characterizing, assessing and preventing marine environment-related risks for Mediterranean societies
• Submersion and erosion risks in coastal zones
• Sources, flows, fate and impacts of pollutants
• New species
• Conducting research in support of sustainable activities
• Small-scale fisheries
• Sustainable aquaculture
• “Blue biotechnologies” of the future
• Eco-design for maritime activities and ecological engineering
• Defining scales for structuring and managing resources and uses to improve their governance
• Relevant spatial-temporal scales
• Relevant scales of organization and governance
• Current management measures
• Understanding the integrated operation of the “Mediterranean Sea dynamic system”
• Physical dynamics
• Biodiversity
• Eco-regionalisation
• Integrated models
• Monitoring changes and developing foresight modeling and analysis capabilities
• Data, indicators and networks
• Understanding the past state of the Mediterranean Sea to anticipate its future
• Building scenarios to explore the future of resources and uses
• Coastal societies and adaptation to global changes

Joël Guiot et Wolfgang Cramer

Engaging future research efforts to support policy

Joël Guiot et Wolfgang Cramer

Lancer de nouvelles initiatives de recherche pour guider les décisions politiques futures

Driss Elyazami

Driss El Yazami

• Chapter 1.1.
• Chapter coordinator
• Contributors
• Chapter 1.2
• Chapter coordinator
• Contributors
• Chapter 1.3
• Chapter coordinators
• Contributors
• Chapter 1.4.
• Chapter coordinators
• Contributors
• Chapter 2.1.
• Chapter Coordinator
• Contributors
• Chapter 2.2.
• Chapter coordinator
• Contributors
• Chapter 2.3.
• Chapter coordinator
• Contributors
• Chapter 2.4.
• Chapter coordinator
• Contributors
• Chapter 2.5.
• Chapter coordinators and contributors
• Chapter 3.1.
• Chapter coordinator
• Contributors
• Chapter 3.2.
• Chapter coordinators
• Contributors
• Chapter 3.3.
• Chapter coordinators
• Contributors
• Chapter 3.4
• Chapter coordinator
• Contributors
• Chapter 3.5.
• Chapter coordinator
• Contributors
• Chapter 3.6
• Chapter coordinator
• Contributors