First project : the trans-siberian railroad

4This project is relatively simple : the prolongation of the Trans-Siberian Railroad throughout the Korean peninsula. Most of the existing lines date back to the Japanese period (even in the South, one had to wait for the KTX program, launched in 2004, for new lines), which means they are too old and were at first designated for the colonial exploitation of Korean mineral resources and Rice Bowls. To link the whole Peninsula to the continent is working to end the de facto status of South Korea as an island, and, of course, to reopen the DPRK. To erase or open frontiers that have been tightly closed for the last 65 years.

5If it is so simple, why are we waiting ? will ask normal people. Because it is simple, precisely, doctor Watson. Because there are too many decision makers, and some of them appear to be working only for the failure of all projects. Translation : All those dear friends, PRC (People’s Republic of China), USA, Japan, have their own agenda and their own interests.

6If the opening of a railway line between Siberia / Manchuria and North Korea, then South Korea (even Japan) is so obviously interesting and conducive to peace, where is the problem ? Who has a problem ? The Russians have accepted the project. The Chinese have accepted the project. The South Koreans have accepted the project. Only the USA remain to be convinced (and maybe Japan).

7But nothing is simple in this region : Each situation should also be evaluated according to all the actors involved and all the bilateral combinations. This train line will be connected to the Vladivostok Peninsula, a town for which China has expressed a growing interest in the recent years.

Ji’an, former Korean capital city, now in China.

Second projet : gaz

8A very heavy topic. The consequences could be vertiginous. Just imagine a gas pipe connecting Siberia and South Korea via the DPRK. Thousands of objections are raised about this issue, never the obvious advantages. Who is afraid by what ?

9What is it about ? A gas pipe of one thousand kilometers, enough for up to 10,000 millions of cubic meters. I know what a lighter contains. Ten billion, I’m less sure, but it sounds like a lot. The quantity is a part of the problem, but the principle is the main aspect of the polemics.

10But the fact that this project faces numerous objections doesn’t mean it is undoable. In July 2014, representatives of Posco (steel), Hyundai (transportation) and Korail (train), all southern chaebols, have visited the special economic zone of Rason (Rajin-Sonbong), north-east of the DPRK, set to attract Chinese and Russian businesses. After lagging behind for a dozen of years, the two big neighbours have decided to invest heavily. The South Koreans have expressed their will to back the project of having the Russian coal transiting in Rason on its way to the South. Which means they are perfectly aware of the fact that the North Korean profits, in the form of a toll, will be huge. And it’s only because the Russians have expressed an irrevocable interest that the South Koreans jumped on the bandwagon, fed up as they were of being sidelined for the numerous contracts signed by the North Koreans.

The estuary of the Yalu River, which is part of the border between PRC China and DPRK, starts at the Chinese city of Dandong (on the right bank) and the North-Korean city of Shinuiju (on the left bank, it can been seen in the background of the first picture).

11The Russians’ interest ? Even before they did cancel the debt, the Russians had financed about 54 km of train lines between Rason et Khasan (there is a common border between the two countries), making it possible to send their coal to the Rason terminal. This infrastructure will add to the three already existing harbour terminals (built since Rason’s foundation in 1991). The South Koreans have offered to share half the burden of the project’s administration. This is definitely not the kind of gift you offer to an “unpredictable” or “insolvent” State. Do the authors of numerous articles on the DPRK realise (or even care to bother about) that every one of their assertions is an insult to the intelligence of the Chinese and Russian peoples who, obviously, don’t know anything about this topic nor understand what they are doing ?

12Between small symbols, like the inauguration of the orthodox church of Jongbaek in Pyongyang in August 2011, and decisions with long term consequences, like the possibility to operate transactions in rubles, negotiations are progressing, unmoved by the American military policy, consisting in stockpiling arms on the South Korean island of Cheju against the will of its inhabitants. One can even think that the American and Japanese repeated statements about the “Chinese military threat”, specially at sea, have played a role in the realistic rapprochement between China and the DPRK, another “threat” according to the USA, statements that can be compared only to those truisms concerning “how upset the Chinese are” about the “unpredictable and aggravating” policy of DPRK. To get rid of those arguments, produced ad nauseam, just go to the Chinese-North Korean border, on the Chinese side. There, facts are obvious, if indeed you are looking for facts. From Yanji to Ji’an, then in the neighborhood of Dandong (the huge Chinese harbour that requires North Korean approval and cooperation to operate), and soon from East to West, you travel in the dust generated by the numerous works in progress, in a zone covered by factories and businesses which at first seem to be planted in the middle of nowhere, until it appears obvious that they are planned with the DPRK in mind. All this alongside a border more and more porous. It is difficult to imagine that China would have invested that much in the region without some preliminary strategic thinking. The investments in Dandong and the Sinuiju-Hwanggumpyong zone as well as Rason’s newly strengthened development are signs of a policy of great importance and, according to the Chinese way of doing things, are here to last.

Between Changbaishan and Ji’an, in China, an exemple of the construction works that can be seen all along the frontier.

13The most surprising aspect of this questions is maybe the deep contradictions in South Korea, which are beginning to look like the…. North Korean contradictions ! To put it simply, the South Korean business sector is advocating a progress in the inter-Korean dialogue, after having lost so many opportunities under the rule of the extreme-right-wing president Lee Myong-bak, while at the same time the political and military bureaucrats scream about the “North Korean threat” on any occasion. To have a train then a gas pipe through North Korean territory ? That would certainly allow the DPRK to blackmail South Korea at will ! A typical Cold War argument which, in this regard, is already outdated. And it ignores the effects of international law (what would it cost to the DPRK to interrupt the circulation of Chinese or Russian gas ?) and moreover the economical interest of North Korea. Interrupt the toll would be as disastrous as ridiculous. But also contradictory with the evolution of the country, for those who are still trying to study it, despite the difficulties and all the clichés.

14So it seems time to turn our attention to the Tumen River Development Program, initiated in 1991 but now at the heart of common interests (North Hamgyong province, Primorsky, Yanbian district, Ryanggang). A lot of nonsense has been spouted over the years about China and Russia. But it has never been said that they are economic jokers. Nor the North Koreans.