Rapid demographic growth
p. 52-53
Texte intégral
| 94,790,000 | 3.5 | + 2,000,000 | 32.8% | 130,000,000 |
| Number of inhabitants in 2017 | Number of children per mother in 2017 | Population growth per year between 2010 and 2017 | Percentage of inhabitants aged from 15 to 34 years in 2017 | Expected population in 2030 |
| Source: CAPMAS, 2017 | ||||
1At the end of the 19th century Egypt had a population of less than ten million. In 1947 the country held 19 million, evidence of moderate demographic growth. Since the 1950s the pace has increased with a growth rate varying between 2% and 2.5% per annum, which is equivalent to the peak rate for European populations during their demographic shift. The Egyptian population has quintupled between 1947 and 2017, and has increased tenfold in 120 years (1897- 2017). The current growth rate (2.04% from 1996 to 2006; 2.56% from 2006 to 2017) means that the population doubles every 30 years. This tendency could pose a problem given that the population is mostly concentrated in Cairo and the Nile Delta.
2According to established patterns of demographic transition, Egypt is still at the end of the second phase: mortality, especially child, greatly diminished after the Second World War while fertility only fell at the end of the 1960s. This drop in fertility was rather slow in comparison with other countries of the Middle East: total fertility rate (TFR) never dropped below the mark of three children per woman, thus keeping growth at high levels. At the beginning of the 2010s TFR grew once again, exceeding 3.5. This trend, described as a “reverse transition” (Youssef Courbage), relaunched demographic growth and concern for managing the increase: human pressure on natural resources, urban extension at the expense of arable land, pressure on public services, increased demand for water, food, work and housing, which if left unfulfilled could provoke social discontent and protest movements.
3.1 Population change (1897-2017)

3.2 Changes in fertility (1950-2012)

The downstream lands, where the people live
3In 2017, 69.3% of the population lived in the downstream part of the country: that is, Greater Cairo, the Nile Delta and the Canal Zone. Demographic growth in urban territory is not the greatest, except in the new towns (6 October and New Cairo). The decline of the dense urban centres (Cairo, Alexandria, Port Said) goes hand in hand with the increasing density of their suburbs (a classic phenomenon of urban sprawl). The secondary towns of the Delta, like Shibeen el-Kom, Tanta, Mit Ghamr and El-Qenayat, are not experiencing a decline of their town centres, but are indeed growing though moderately in comparison with the overall region. Growth is strongest in small towns and rural areas. In tandem with the increased density in the Delta due to greater rural fertility, the desert to the west is being taken over by an extension of agricultural land, which attracts a new population, often young and fertile. Migration and high fertility are behind local growth rates that are over 4% per annum, pointing to a doubling of the population in less than 17 years.
3.3 Demographic growth in the downstream region (2006-2017)

A youthful population
4Youth was a major feature of the population in 2017, and this can be characterised as both an asset and a challenge. One in three Egyptians is less than 15 years old, and one in two is less than 25, which has contributed to the deterioration of the educational system and to unemployment.
5The distribution by age group as observed on the national level is more heterogeneous on the regional scale. There is a general contrast between young rural areas and less young urban zones. Likewise, the margins of the large conurbations are younger than the centres. The areas on the western edge of the Delta are even younger than other rural spaces. These geographic disparities can be explained by the migration of young workers and also by differences in fertility.
3.4 Youth of the downstream region (2017)

Auteurs
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Yoann Doignon
Yoann Doignon, Mediterranean Demographic Observatory (DemoMed), Aix Marseille University, CNRS, LAMES, UMR 7305, post-doc CEDEJ-FMSH in 2018
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Élise Lévêque
Elise Lévêque, Mediterranean Demographic Observatory (DemoMed), Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, LAMES, UMR 7305
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