Shifts in the party political scene, 2000-2018
p. 48-49
Texte intégral
1978 | April 2011 | 2015 | 2018 |
Foundation of the NDP by Sadat | NDP dissolved | Formation of the Support Egypt parliamentary coalition | Only one competing candidate permitted in the presidential election |
1The National Democratic Party (NDP), which succeeded Nasser’s Arab Socialist Union (ASU), dominated political life for three decades. Positioned at the very heart of the cronyism developed by Mubarak, it was an essential cog in the authoritarian regime.
From one-party State to a pluralist party political world
2Despite the existence of dozens of political parties and the regular organisation of polls, the NDP was the party of the State and enjoyed a dominant position in the political scene based upon its privileged access to the resources of the State. Indeed, whether electoral competition was open, as in the legislative elections of 2000 and 2005, or was closed, as in 2010, no alternative appeared possible. While changeable in shape and form, the NDP was less an instrument for controlling the State apparatus than it was a mechanism for adjustments within the governing coalition. Its network on the local level allowed it to structure the political exchanges between disparate competing actors. At the same time, a number of figures originating from the military establishment and the business world remained relatively independent of the party.
3In 2011, the popular demand for the fall of the regime and its system of patronage and coercion turned this political configuration upside down. The pluralisation of political life was made manifest in the holding of more transparent elections in 2011-2012, which featured a diversification of the politics on offer and a new electoral citizen body. The legislative elections of 2012 boosted the return of political parties and the polarisation around certain splits: pro-revolution versus anti-revolution, Islamist versus secular. A law deeming NDP officials ineligible to stand was eventually overturned and the successive ballots were marked by the return to politics of former NDP members.
4Since the ousting of Mohamed Morsi in summer 2013, no party has replaced the NDP or filled the space left vacant by the dissolution of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Liberty and Justice Party. About 100 parties have taken part in the authorised political game, but the elections of 2015 led to a politically homogenous legislative assembly with few cleavages, with the arrival of numerous “newcomers”, both independents and remodelled old guard. This vote featured the formation of broad coalitions around President Sisi, such as For the Love of Egypt, which was quickly put to the test by the withdrawal of the Free Egyptians Party, of a liberal stance and composed of businessmen and former members of the Wafd* (historically moderate party), the Democratic Front (liberal dissidents from the NDP) and of the NDP.
2.18 Poster from the presidential campaign of 2018, "You are hope", Cairo, March 2018

© Marine Poirier
2.19 Composition of the House of Representatives from 2000 to 2015: distribution of seats by election

Difficulty in stabilising the ruling coalition
5The condition of being a government without a party has been a source of conflict and of a deep feeling of uncertainty within the political arena: during the presidential elections of spring 2018 the only tolerated competitor, Musa Mustafa Musa, leader of the small Al-Ghad Party, was himself an ardent supporter of the president. While some would-be candidates were bumped from the running, their willingness to stand indicated sizeable dissent within the governing coalition. Many former officials of the NDP bemoan the absence of a successor party to the NDP in which they could repurpose their personal capital and find a supportive framework for the resumption of political activities. Others are worried that the political game is being stifled.
6Debates around the formation of a “ruling party” or a “majority party” have restated the importance of ensuring transactions within the ruling coalition take place within a stable context. There is also the need to mobilise the electorate during future ballots. The campaigns in support of the president prior to the 2018 elections (“So you can build it”, “All with you for the sake of Egypt”, “Go Sisi”) gathered a mixture of supporters (businessmen, military, politicians etc.). Given the weakness of the networking at the local level, such a loose structure seems unable to encompass the thousands of candidates who will stand in the coming local elections, and eventually to maintain discipline amongst those who are elected and are “pro-regime”.
7Negotiations within the Support Egypt parliamentary coalition might result in the foundation of a majority party or of two large parties: one pro-government, the other so-called opposition. The pro-army party Future of the Nation (Mostaqbal Watan) might also chose to stand as an autonomous entity. In any case, the constitution of 2014 prohibits the President of the Republic from belonging to a political party, in contrast to the previous period when Mubarak was also president of the NDP. Article 6 of the law governing the House of Representatives bans members from changing political affiliation during their term, without the validation of two thirds of the house. The instability of the rules of the game, as attested by several reforms to the electoral law and to methods of polling, as well as the carving up of constituencies, continues to compromise any sound footing for political manoeuvring far beyond the crisis points of 2011 and 2013.
2.20 The majority parliamentary coalition "Support Egypt"

Auteur
Marine Poirier, researcher in political science with the CEDEJ
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