A power built on sand
p. 20-21
Texte intégral
1958-1961 | 1979 | August 2015 | 2016 |
Union of Egypt and Syria | Camp David Accords | Widening of the Suez Canal | The islands of Tiran and Sanafir ceded to Saudi Arabia |
1Egypt, cradle of al-Nahda* at the beginning of the 20th century, and leader of Third-Worldism and Pan-Arabism in the Nasser era, has seen its political influence and cultural and religious soft power fade in recent times. Demographic weight, archaeological wealth, the strategic position of the Suez Canal and the army are now the pillars of the country’s strength. Egyptian power continues through its role as a mediator, currently in Libya and in Palestine, but the crisis in resources (water, land and energy), highly unbalanced internal development (both spatial and social), as well as multiple dependences on the exterior (debt, foreign direct investment, tourism, and grain supply) represent three areas of fragility.
Recent territorial issues
2Egypt is one of the oldest nation states in the world wherein the control and exploitation of the waters of the Nile led to the early emergence of a centralised power. However, the territorial cohesion linked to the river has been shaken by poor management of the margins and by repeated attacks since the 1990s on Egyptian Christians and tourists, and since 2011 on the police and army. The revolutionary events of 2011 aroused peaceful Nubian claims for the right of return to their ancestral lands. The Halaib Triangle, disputed since 19656, remains a sensitive issue (see Sidebar). Since the fall of Gaddafi’s regime in Libya the Western Desert has witnessed incursions by fighters trying to open a second front and lessen the concentration of armed forces in the Sinai. The failed integration of the Sinai Peninsula into the rest of the country has created an area of dissent harbouring different jihadist groups, particularly in the north where a war has been simmering since 2013. The closure of the border with Gaza and the Israeli barrier have not stopped the traffic of people and goods. Further to the east, the ceding of the islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia has helped solidify the alliance between Cairo and Riyadh despite popular protest.
Diversified alliances
3Egyptian leaders have opted for leadership within the Arab world rather than seeing the country as an African power, despite the Nubian component, a shared history with The Sudan, and the Nile connection. While Egypt has become a central hub, among others, for the Arab world, and tensions with its African neighbours have grown over the use of Nile water, President Sisi intends to rebuild economic links with Sub-Saharan Africa. This has been demonstrated by the signing in 2018 of an accord instituting a continental free-trade zone, the hosting of the 2018 Africa Forum in Sharm al-Sheikh, and presiding over the African Union in 2019. The revolutionary wave of 2011 has led to changes in alliances due to Turkish, Iranian, Qatari and American support for the government of the Muslim Brotherhood.
4The Egypt of Sisi is in step with the oil kingdoms of the Gulf and is part of the Arab coalition against Yemen and Qatar. The special relationship with the United States, supplier of wheat and military and financial aid, remains intact in the name of the war on terrorism: partnership with Europe is driven by commercial interests (arms sales) and the control of immigration.
5New partnerships have (re)appeared: with Russia, which provided 85% of the wheat imported in 2017-2018 and is building a nuclear power station at Dabaa; and with China, the country’s leading supplier and five-time host to Sisi between 2014 and 2018. Egypt is seen as a key country on the new maritime Silk Road and is enjoying increasing Chinese investment in energy, rail transport, the new capital, airport and Suez Canal zone.
The Halaib Triangle (12,500 km2) belongs to Egypt according to the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty of 1899, but not according to the administrative decree of 1902, hence the unusual situation of Bir Tawil, which does not appear on the official maps of either Sudan or of Egypt. The disputed Halaib zone, with a population of about 20,000 (troops and public officials included) is under the control of the Egyptian army since the clashes of 1995. The cross-border nomadic tribes who live from livestock breeding, fishing and trade, mainly Bisharin (of the Beja group) Ababda and Rashiada, live alongside Egyptian employees who have come from elsewhere. The elevation of Halaib to the status of town (2014), and the proposed solar farm (2016) in cooperation with the UAE are evidence of an Egyptian policy of investment and development intended to increase ties to Cairo. |
1.1 Egypt and the Middle East during the 2010s: a fragile power

1.2 Halaib, a barometer of Egypt-Sudanese relations

Auteur
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Karine Bennafla
Karine Bennafla, professor of geography at Jean Moulin University of Lyon, affiliated to the research group EVS (Environnement, Ville, Société) – UMR 5600. She was director of the Centre for Economic, Legal and Social Studies and Documentation (CEDEJ) in Cairo from 2015 to 2019
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