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Energieszenarien

 | 
Christian Dieckhoff
, 
Wolf Fichtner
, 
Armin Grunwald
, 
et al.

Projecting Energy Market Trends until 2030 German Energy Outlook 20095

Ulrich Fahl, Markus Blesl et Alfred Voß

Résumé

Against the background of a currently shrinking contribution from indigenous energy carriers as well as increasing efforts for climate protection, the Energy Outlook 2009 [IER, RWI & ZEW 2010] assesses the development of energy supply and demand in Germany up to 2030. Two cases of energy supply in Germany are examined. The Reference Case assumes a legally regulated nuclear phase-out, whereas the Lifetime Extension Case, further divided into two variants, presumes an extension of the existing nuclear power plants’ lifetime to 40 and 60 years. Sensitivity analyses evaluate the impact of alterations of key influencing parameters such as the demographic and economic development.

Texte intégral

1 Objective

  • 5 Study on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, Berlin

1Against the background of a currently shrinking contribution from indigenous energy carriers as well as increasing efforts of climate protection, the Energy Outlook 2009 [IER, RWI & ZEW 2010] assesses the development of energy supply and demand in Germany up to 2030, and further makes an outlook up to 2050. The Outlook aims to quantify the probable development of energy consumption and energy supply in Germany given assumed energy and climate policy measures and the assumptions concerning uncertain parameters like oil prices.

2 Approach

2An integrated, model-based approach is adopted to illustrate the German energy markets as part of the European energy system. This is to account for embedding the German power supply system into the European domestic market as well as to capture the effects of transnational, EU-wide regulation approaches like the European Emission Trading System in an appropriate way.

3In the course of this integrated approach of analysis, two cases of energy supply in Germany are examined. They differ only in one aspect: The Reference Case assumes a legally regulated nuclear phase-out, whereas the Lifetime Extension Case, further divided into two variants, presumes an extension of the existing nuclear power plants’ lifetime to 40 and 60 years.

4Sensitivity analyses evaluate the impact of alterations of key influencing parameters such as the demographic and economic development. These parameters are determined on the basis of established empirical research methods.

5The Energy Outlook 2009 was accompanied by a group of experienced scientists with extensive expertise in modelling and scenario analysis. The task of the group was an unbiased methodical and contextual consultation, supported by a robust validity check of the outlook.

3 Political Framework Conditions

6The prescribed EU energy and climate policy objectives for Germany are taken into account in the Energy Outlook 2009: As given in the EU-wide Emission Trading System (ETS), the participating sectors (particularly electricity generation and energy-intensive industries) must reduce their CO2 emissions by 21% in 2020 compared to 2005.

7Furthermore, until 2020, 18% of the gross final energy consumption in Germany should be satisfied by renewable energy technologies. The Renewable Energy Act (EEG) and the Renewable Energy Heat Act (EEWärmeG) function as instruments to achieve these objectives. Regarding the energy efficiency objectives, it is assumed that corresponding regulations, such as the German Energy Conservation Regulations (EnEV), will be further developed.

8Concerning the German national objective to boost the electricity generation from CHP plants (CHP), a temporary prolongation of the CHP Act (KWKG) is expected. In addition, a strengthened European integration of the electricity market and an increase in competition in the domestic gas market are assumed.

4 Energy Prices

9Considering the limited availability of crude oil, the potentials to increase supply as well as the substitution possibilities, the price of the various oil types in the OPEC basket is expected to increase to 127 $/barrel (bbl) until 2030 in the Reference Case. Expressed in prices of 2007, this corresponds to a real oil price of 75$/bbl.

10The historically observed correlation between the crude oil prices and the consumer prices of natural gas, fuel oil, petrol, etc. is also relevant in the future.

11Electricity prices are determined by fuel prices as well as legislative factors: Whereas the prescribed Renewable Energy Act (EEG) increases compensation payment, the concession levy, CHP compensation, and electricity tax remain constant in nominal terms. Electricity prices for the industrial sector and private households, apart from slight fluctuations, remain unchanged between 2012 and 2030.

12In order to accommodate the uncertainty regarding the future oil price development, a second price path (”high oil price”) is employed in the sensitivity analyses of the Energy Outlook 2009. There, a crude oil price of 100$2007/bbl (nominal 169$/bbl) is reached in 2030.

5 Population

13The population development and the number of private households are decisive factors for the energy consumption of a country. In the Reference Case, a shrinking population by 2.5 million to 79.7 million in the year 2030 is assumed.

14In contrast, the number of households increases further by 2.3 million to 42 million in 2030. This is associated with an increase in mobility needs and associated energy consumption. With the ever decreasing household size, an increase in living space per person and space heating needs is expected.

15A slight increase in the passenger transport activity until 2020 is assumed. Afterwards, due to the decline in population, it dwindles again to approximately the level of 2012 until 2030.

6 Economic Development

16The severe worldwide recession and the resulting slump in economic activities hit the export-oriented German economy very hard. Therefore, a shrinking of the German economy by 5.5% in 2009 in comparison to 2008 is assumed in the Reference Case. However, a slight recovery of 0.6% in 2010 compared to 2009 is predicted.

17Consistent with the assessments of the International Monetary Fund, it is assumed in the Reference Case that the global economy returns to the original growth path in the medium term and that the integration of world markets resumes.

18Owing predominately to the ageing society and the shrinking population, the available workforce falls and subsequently, a moderate contraction of the growth potential in Germany is expected. It is assumed that the annual GDP growth rates between 2012 and 2030 amount on average to 1.2%. In comparison, the average annual economic growth since the German reunification has been 1.5%.

19The freight transport activity is heavily dependant on the development of economic production. With the beginning of the economic recovery, freight traffic increases notably again and is around 55% higher than in 2007 with approximately 880 billion tkm in 2030.

7 Reference Case

20In the reference case the primary energy consumption in Germany drops by 21% until 2030 compared to 2007. This is accompanied by an annual increase of energy productivity by 2%. Petroleum oil remains the most important primary energy carrier despite a consumption downturn. The share of coal in primary energy consumption declines, while the share of natural gas, due to gaining significance, increases moderately. As a whole, the dependence on energy imports (share of the net import in primary energy consumption of fossil energy carriers) increases from approximately 73% in 2007 to nearly 87% in 2030.

21After the financial crisis, the domestic electricity demand increases parallel to a slight decrease of domestic electricity generation. Starting in 2012, demand is satisfied increasingly by electricity imports. About half of the required fossil power plant capacity in 2030 is constructed after 2012. Fossil fuels still account for 58% of the electricity generation in 2030. Whereas the share of hard coal decreases from nearly 22% in 2007 to 14% in 2030, the share of natural gas increases from approximately 12% to almost 21% in the same period. Lignite has a share of around 22% in 2030, almost the same share as in 2007.

22There is a slight shortfall in attaining the objective of a 30% share from renewable energy in the electricity generation in 2020. Likewise, the predefined EU objective for Germany to have a share of 18% from renewable energy in gross final energy consumption in 2020 is just missed by a 2% shortfall. This is despite the fact that in 2020 renewable energy covers 15% of the final energy consumption in the heat market, rather than the required 14%.

23By means of the support measures set in the CHP Act, CHP electricity is increased continually from 76TWh in 2007 to about 118TWh in 2030. The national goal to increase the share of CHP electricity in net electricity generation from 12% in 2008 to about 25% until 2020 is not attained. The share of CHP electricity amounts to 19% in 2020.

24The final energy consumption falls by about 15% until 2030 compared to 2006. This can be mainly explained by the decline in heat demand, which results in particular from increased energy efficiency in buildings. The targets of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive to reduce the final energy consumption by 9% until 2016 compared to the average consumption in the period 2001 to 2005 is already surpassed in 2012.

25The goal stated in the Kyoto Protocol for Germany to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 21% by 2012 compared to 1990’s level is markedly exceeded. Until 2030, greenhouse gas emissions in Germany decrease by 44% relative to 1990. The price for emission certificates increases in real terms to approximately 40€2007/tCO2 in 2015. After 2015, owing to the new CO2 reduction options, the prices of the certificates decrease to 28€2007/tCO2 until 2025. After 2030, however, drastic price surges are expected (to 53€2007/tCO2 in 2040 and 88€2007/tCO2 in 2050).

26Due to the increasing importance of technologies for CO2 sequestration as well as the increasing contribution from renewable energy, the energy conversion sector makes the biggest contribution to the emissions reduction.

8 Lifetime Extension Case

27The extended operation of nuclear power plants leads to lower greenhouse gas emissions in Germany and lower CO2-prices in the European Emission Trading System than in the Reference Case. The goal achievements for renewable energy remain unaffected. In contrast, the growth of CHP electricity generation is curbed.

28Despite retrofit expenses, nuclear power plants can be operated with low generation costs. In addition, the reduced costs for CO2 certificates facilitate lower electricity prices, which are up to 9€2007/MWh lower than those stated in the Reference Case.

29The less expensive electricity supply is coupled with positive feedback effects for the industrial production, employment and the overall economic development: the GDP in 2020 is up to 0.6% higher than that stated in the Reference Case, and up to 0.9% higher in 2030. That represents a cumulative increase of GDP by 122 to 295 bn € (in prices of 2000) compared to the Reference Case between 2010 and 2030 (depending whether the length of the lifetime of nuclear power plants is set to 40 or 60 years).

30Until 2020, primary energy consumption develops similarly in both variants of delayed nuclear phase-out. During that period, its decrease is significantly less than in the Reference Case. For 2020, primary energy consumption is expected to be 7% higher than in the Reference. This can mainly be attributed to better economic performance as well as to lower electricity prices. Longer operation of nuclear power plants results in lower inputs of coal and natural gases in electricity production. This is reflected in the primary energy mix.

31With the longer lifetimes for nuclear power plants, less additional power capacity is needed in Germany. In the mid-term (app. 2020), a longer operational time of 40 years reduces the additionally needed capacity by 7 Gigawatts (GWel). With an extension to 60 years, this figure rises to 15 GWel. Longer operational times promote domestic electricity production, which is expected to increase from 616 bnkWh (TWh) in 2012 to maximally 663 TWh in 2030. This is due to a higher aggregate demand for electricity, while electricity imports shrink.

32In the case of a lifetime extension of existing nuclear power plants to 60 years, the supply risk remains virtually unchanged. In the Reference Case, and also with a lifetime extension to 40 years, however, it rises considerably until 2030. This is explained by two factors: First, the reduction in the share of nuclear power cannot be completely compensated by the substantial increase in the share of renewable energies. Secondly, Germany’s consumption of natural gas is almost completely dependent on imports by 2030.

9 Sensitivity Analyses

33The implications of a variation in the key determinants of future energy use are gauged by employing sensitivity analyses to both the Reference Case and a Lifetime Extension Case encompassing an extension of the lifetime of nuclear power plants in Europe to 60 years. To this end, alternative values for the following four determinants are analysed: economic development, the level of energy prices, climate targets, and demographic change.

34For the Lifetime Extension, the analysis focuses on the effects of higher energy prices and stricter climate targets.

35All sensitivity analyses indicate that the EU requirement to increase the share of renewable energies in gross final energy consumption to 18% by 2020 is not quite reached. The same applies to the national goal of reaching a 30% share of renewable energies in gross electricity consumption by 2020. Irrespective of the sensitivity analysis, the bio-fuel share reaches 10.5% in the year 2020 and is primarily determined by quota requirements.

36The national goal to double the electricity production from combined heat and power generation by 2020 is not met in any of the sensitivity analyses. In the sensitivity analyses with lifetime extension, the CHP electricity generation is slightly lower. The ambitious goal of doubling energy productivity by 2020 compared to 1990 is not reached in any of the sensitivity analyses.

Bibliographie

Literaturverzeichnis

IER, RWI, ZEW, 2010, Projecting Energy Market Trends until 2030. Energy Outlook 2009. Executive Summary and Abstract, Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Stuttgart, Essen, Mannheim.

Notes

5 Study on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, Berlin

Auteurs

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Universität Stuttgart, 70565 Stuttgart, Deutschland, E-Mail: f@ier.uni-stuttgart.de, Telefon: +49(0)711/68587830

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Universität Stuttgart, 70565 Stuttgart, Deutschland, E-Mail: uf@ier.uni-stuttgart.de, Telefon: +49(0)711/68587830

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Universität Stuttgart, 70565 Stuttgart, Deutschland, E-Mail: uf@ier.uni-stuttgart.de, Telefon: +49(0)711/68587830

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